Alabama @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Alabama

3-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

2-2 · Power #64

final

Closing spread

ALA -16.5

✓ ALA W

Total

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 32–16 MSST

✓ ALA (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -16.5

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseALA -16.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -16.5

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 16.5-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 40–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 45, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.3 against an average line of 15.4; 40.5 points a game (usually 55.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Very close	TEX @ BAY 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	38–6	W	U49.5
Very close	OKST @ KSU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-14	20–18	L	U48.5
Very close	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	UGA @ UK 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-17	14–3	L	U42
Close	TA&M @ TENN 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	34–13	W	U49.5
Close	CLEM @ SYR 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total	-13.5	17–14	L	U44
Close	CIN @ TEM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-17	23–3	W	U49
Close	LOU @ BC 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	33–34	L	O48.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA WLLW	2-2	50%	0-1	2-2
MSST WLLL	1-3	25%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA –OUU	1-2	33%	3-1
MSST UUOO	2-2	50%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 52 earlier overs in games with totals 41–49, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALAlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-2 33%
MSSTlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+13.1 →+15.2▲ 2.1#13

MSST+2.3 →+0.8▼ 1.5#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ALA

Longer bar = better

MSST

#65

Offense

Even

#65

#21

Defense

◀ ALA better

#98

+0.3 #51

Turnovers

MSST better ▶

+1.0 #17

64 plays #92

Pace

◀ ALA faster

61 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: ALA offense

	ALA off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #63	27.3 #87	ALA
Yards / play	5.68 #72	5.95 #104	ALA
PPA / play	+0.16 #61	+0.11 #83	ALA
Success rate	43% #63	46% #118	ALA

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	MSST off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #61	13.5 #17	ALA
Yards / play	6.33 #39	4.47 #16	ALA
PPA / play	+0.15 #64	0.00 #39	ALA
Success rate	39% #96	32% #10	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	4.3 #95	6.5 #101	10.8 #109	10.5 #15	9.0 #30	19.5 #14
MSST allowed	4.3 #57	10.3 #108	14.5 #86	6.0 #77	6.8 #75	12.8 #79

MSST scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	4.3 #95	10.3 #44	14.5 #73	6.0 #80	8.5 #43	14.5 #54
ALA allowed	3.3 #35	2.5 #4	5.8 #8	2.5 #19	5.3 #52	7.8 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.