LSU @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff89°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

LSU

3-1 · Power #10

final

Final

Ole Miss

3-1 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -3

✓ MISS W

Total

▲ Over · 104 pts

Model before kickoff

LSU 32–30 MISS

✗ LSU (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -3

Total67

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLSU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close67

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -3

Total67

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 3-point road favorite at MISS, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 55–49 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 104 points went over 67, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.4 against an average line of 3; 69.6 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIAMI @ LOU 2020 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	47–34	W	O65.5
Close	WASH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	32–40	L	O65
Close	TENN @ LSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	40–13	W	U63.5
Close	WAKE @ DUKE 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-3	31–34	L	U67.5
Close	UTAH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	32–42	L	O64.5
Close	OU @ BAY 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-4	14–27	L	U63
Close	WAKE @ LOU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	21–48	L	O66.25
Close	OU @ TCU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	24–55	L	O69.5
Close	USC @ UCLA 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	43–38	W	O65
Close	SMU @ HOU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	37–44	L	O61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU LWWL	2-2	50%	1-0	2-2
MISS WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	0-1

Venue/role: LSU away, as favorite; MISS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU –OOO	3-0	100%	3-1
MISS OUOU	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q3. Of 9 earlier overs in games with totals 63–71, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSUlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	3-0 100%
MISSlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU−6.4 →+14.1▲ 20.5#16

MISS+4.5 →+13.4▲ 8.9#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

LSU

Longer bar = better

MISS

#10

Offense

Even

#20

#103

Defense

MISS better ▶

#46

+0.5 #49

Turnovers

MISS better ▶

+0.8 #27

70 plays #41

Pace

◀ LSU faster

65 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	42.8 #9	18.5 #36	LSU
Yards / play	7.57 #9	4.61 #26	Even
PPA / play	+0.42 #7	+0.02 #50	LSU
Success rate	53% #14	41% #70	LSU

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #11	25.0 #77	MISS
Yards / play	7.29 #12	5.91 #101	MISS
PPA / play	+0.38 #11	+0.28 #128	MISS
Success rate	46% #45	45% #104	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	7.8 #41	15.5 #6	23.3 #9	9.5 #27	10.0 #21	19.5 #16
MISS allowed	4.3 #56	4.0 #22	8.3 #34	4.5 #58	5.8 #58	10.3 #52

MISS scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	13.0 #5	3.3 #126	16.3 #59	13.0 #4	12.8 #3	25.8 #1
LSU allowed	5.0 #77	6.0 #51	11.0 #62	3.3 #31	10.8 #126	14.0 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.