LSU @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

LSU

3-2 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Missouri

5-0 · Power #12

final

Closing spread

LSU -6.5

✓ LSU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

LSU 34–28 MIZ

✓ LSU (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -6.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLSU -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -6.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at MIZ, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 49–39; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 6.8; 53.9 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	13–20	L	U54.5
Very close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Very close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Very close	WAKE @ BC 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	41–10	W	U64
Very close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Very close	UNC @ DUKE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	38–35	L	O70
Very close	UNC @ PITT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	41–24	W	O49.5
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	VT @ PITT 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	14–47	L	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU LWWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	2-3
MIZ LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-2	1-0

Venue/role: LSU away, as favorite; MIZ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU –OOOO	4-0	100%	3-2
MIZ OUOOO	4-1	80%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSUlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	4-0 100%
MIZlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU−6.4 →+13.8▲ 20.2#15

MIZ+0.4 →+6.7▲ 6.3#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

LSU

Longer bar = better

MIZ

Offense

◀ LSU better

#31

#120

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#40

+0.2 #67

Turnovers

MIZ better ▶

+0.2 #51

71 plays #30

Pace

◀ LSU faster

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #7	20.8 #41	LSU
Yards / play	7.77 #6	4.87 #31	LSU
PPA / play	+0.45 #5	+0.08 #68	LSU
Success rate	55% #5	34% #18	Even

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #53	31.0 #110	MIZ
Yards / play	6.85 #23	6.47 #123	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.28 #22	+0.33 #131	MIZ
Success rate	48% #26	46% #114	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	7.6 #41	16.6 #2	24.2 #7	10.4 #14	9.4 #25	19.8 #12
MIZ allowed	4.8 #63	3.4 #8	8.2 #30	4.0 #41	8.6 #106	12.6 #80

MIZ scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	7.4 #48	10.4 #40	17.8 #45	4.0 #107	10.2 #15	14.2 #61
LSU allowed	8.2 #117	6.8 #59	15.0 #92	3.2 #30	12.8 #133	16.0 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.