Wisconsin @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Indiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Wisconsin

5-3 · Power #42

final

Final

Indiana

2-6 · Power #89

▲ winner

Closing spread

WIS -7.5

✓ IU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 27–19 IU

✗ WIS (72%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -7.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWIS -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 62% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -7.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as a 7.5-point road favorite at IU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 20–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.6 against an average line of 8.2; 42.8 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	3–10	L	U47
Very close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Very close	MINN @ IU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	35–14	W	O43.25
Very close	AUB @ SC 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	17–21	L	U45.25
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	WISC @ NU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	42–7	W	O44.5
Very close	WASH @ COLO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Very close	NCSU @ UVA 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-8	24–21	L	U47.5
Very close	PITT @ WMU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	34–13	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS WLLWW	4-4	50%	2-1	3-4
IU LLLLW	4-4	50%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: WIS away, as favorite; IU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS O–UOU	3-4	43%	5-3
IU OOOOO	6-2	75%	2-6

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WISlast 8	5-3 63%	4-4 50%	3-4 43%
IUlast 8	2-6 25%	4-4 50%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+6.6 →+6.6–#31

IU−10.1 →−5.7▲ 4.4#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

WIS

Longer bar = better

#83

Offense

◀ WIS better

#122

#31

Defense

◀ WIS better

#100

+0.1 #58

Turnovers

◀ WIS better

−0.6 #116

72 plays #23

Pace

◀ WIS faster

63 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Even matchup

	WIS off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #88	29.8 #102	Even
Yards / play	5.28 #93	5.61 #70	IU
PPA / play	+0.06 #97	+0.19 #110	Even
Success rate	44% #52	46% #117	WIS

When IU has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	IU off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #125	19.0 #25	WIS
Yards / play	5.00 #113	5.03 #29	WIS
PPA / play	−0.02 #125	−0.01 #26	WIS
Success rate	37% #123	39% #42	WIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	3.4 #117	6.4 #99	9.8 #116	8.4 #24	6.6 #69	15.0 #41
IU allowed	6.1 #89	9.3 #100	15.4 #104	7.3 #103	5.9 #59	13.1 #80

IU scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	5.6 #75	3.4 #133	9.0 #121	3.5 #118	4.6 #112	8.1 #124
WIS allowed	3.4 #28	6.0 #38	9.4 #25	5.1 #58	4.5 #25	9.6 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.