Arkansas @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F7 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas

2-6 · Power #59

▲ winner

Final

Florida

5-3 · Power #36

final

Closing spread

FLA -3

✓ ARK W

Total

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 23–26 FLA

✗ FLA (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFLA -3

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFLA -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFLA -3

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FLA as a 3-point home favorite against ARK, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ARK won 39–36 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 49, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 3; 51.6 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USC vs UTAH 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	26–42	L	O52.75
Very close	MSST vs UK 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-1	31–17	W	O47
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	VT vs SYR 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5
Very close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5
Very close	MINN vs MD 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	34–16	W	U53
Very close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	16–31	L	U51.75
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	21–38	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK WLWWL	4-4	50%	3-0	3-1
FLA LLWWL	3-5	38%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: ARK away, as underdog; FLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK OO–OU	5-2	71%	2-6
FLA UO–OO	4-2	67%	5-3

Went over in Q4. Of 107 earlier overs in games with totals 45–53, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARKlast 8	2-6 25%	4-4 50%	5-2 71%
FLAlast 8	5-3 63%	3-5 38%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+3.7 →+4.7▲ 1.0#41

FLA−1.7 →+5.3▲ 7.0#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ARK

Longer bar = better

FLA

#91

Offense

FLA better ▶

#47

#48

Defense

◀ ARK better

#66

+0.4 #39

Turnovers

◀ ARK better

−0.4 #98

65 plays #91

Pace

FLA faster ▶

67 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: FLA defense

	ARK off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #74	22.9 #49	FLA
Yards / play	4.71 #124	5.97 #100	FLA
PPA / play	+0.12 #73	+0.16 #99	ARK
Success rate	40% #92	36% #17	FLA

When FLA has the ball

Even matchup

	FLA off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #68	22.9 #50	Even
Yards / play	6.15 #46	5.48 #63	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #35	+0.02 #33	Even
Success rate	46% #37	39% #44	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	8.0 #30	5.5 #114	13.5 #76	5.9 #76	7.1 #57	13.0 #67
FLA allowed	7.6 #117	5.9 #33	13.5 #81	4.6 #46	4.8 #35	9.4 #28

FLA scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.0 #45	9.3 #45	16.3 #46	4.5 #105	7.3 #55	11.8 #90
ARK allowed	5.5 #75	7.3 #66	12.8 #65	5.5 #64	4.6 #29	10.1 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.