UConn @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Tennessee

Weather at kickoff59°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

UConn

1-7 · Power #125

final

Final

Tennessee

6-2 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -34.5

✓ TENN W

Total

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 9–42 TENN

✓ TENN (99%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -34.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTENN -34.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -34.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 34.5-point home favorite against CONN, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 59–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 55, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 98%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 39.6 against an average line of 33.9; 60.4 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs KU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-34.5	59–7	W	O57
Very close	ND vs SYR 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-34	45–21	L	O51
Close	MSST vs BGSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-31	45–14	P	O53
Close	LSU vs ARMY 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-33	62–0	W	O60
Close	MSU vs AKR 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-34.5	52–0	W	U56
Close	TA&M vs ULM 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-36.5	47–3	W	U53.5
Close	UTSA vs USM 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-32.5	27–17	L	U54.5
Close	CCU vs ULM 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-33.5	59–6	W	O57.5
Close	CLEM vs LT 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-33.5	48–20	L	O53.5
Close	UK vs NMSU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-35.5	56–16	W	O61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN LWWLW	4-4	50%	2-1	4-2
TENN WWWLW	5-3	63%	3-1	5-2

Venue/role: CONN away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN OO–UU	2-4	33%	1-7
TENN POUOO	4-3-1	57%	6-2

Went over in Q3. Of 101 earlier overs in games with totals 51–59, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONNlast 8	1-7 13%	4-4 50%	2-4 33%
TENNlast 8	6-2 75%	5-3 63%	4-3-1 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−5.0 →−11.9▼ 6.9#118

TENN+9.7 →+13.3▲ 3.6#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CONN

Longer bar = better

TENN

#117

Offense

TENN better ▶

#44

#101

Defense

TENN better ▶

#20

−0.1 #76

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

+0.3 #46

62 plays #118

Pace

TENN faster ▶

71 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	CONN off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #118	20.4 #31	TENN
Yards / play	5.09 #109	4.87 #21	TENN
PPA / play	0.00 #121	−0.02 #18	TENN
Success rate	37% #120	35% #11	TENN

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #44	29.3 #100	TENN
Yards / play	6.24 #43	5.76 #85	TENN
PPA / play	+0.17 #52	+0.16 #96	TENN
Success rate	45% #38	47% #124	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	3.0 #119	5.5 #114	8.5 #127	2.8 #125	8.5 #29	11.3 #94
TENN allowed	3.3 #27	6.6 #56	9.9 #32	6.9 #95	3.6 #12	10.5 #43

TENN scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	9.4 #12	8.9 #55	18.3 #24	5.5 #89	8.0 #40	13.5 #60
CONN allowed	7.0 #105	8.9 #95	15.9 #108	8.3 #115	5.1 #43	13.4 #84

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.