Notre Dame @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Clemson

Weather at kickoff62°F0 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Notre Dame

7-2 · Power #6

final

Final

Clemson

4-4 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -3.5

✓ CLEM W

Total

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 27–23 CLEM

✗ ND (61%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -3.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseND -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -3.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 3.5-point road favorite at CLEM, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 31–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 43, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 3.1; 42.4 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH @ PSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–17	W	U48
Close	CLEM @ ND 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Close	ALA @ TA&M 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	26–20	W	O45.5
Close	MSST @ UK 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Close	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5
Close	TA&M @ LSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.25	24–27	L	O46.75
Close	WISC @ IOWA 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-1	7–28	L	U40.5
Close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Close	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-1	10–9	P	U45
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND PWLWW	6-2-1	75%	2-1	6-2
CLEM LWLLL	2-6	25%	1-3	0-1

Venue/role: ND away, as favorite; CLEM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND UU–OO	5-2	71%	7-2
CLEM UU–OU	3-3	50%	4-4

Went over in Q3. Of 56 earlier overs in games with totals 39–47, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDlast 9	7-2 78%	6-2-1 75%	5-2 71%
CLEMlast 8	4-4 50%	2-6 25%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+9.1 →+17.8▲ 8.7#8

CLEM−4.1 →+9.9▲ 14.0#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#15

Offense

◀ ND better

#66

#12

Defense

Even

#16

+1.0 #8

Turnovers

◀ ND better

−0.4 #104

61 plays #121

Pace

CLEM faster ▶

76 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #12	21.0 #39	ND
Yards / play	6.96 #10	4.31 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #12	−0.05 #11	Even
Success rate	47% #24	33% #6	Even

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	CLEM off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #65	15.3 #9	ND
Yards / play	5.50 #81	4.44 #10	ND
PPA / play	+0.08 #89	−0.04 #14	ND
Success rate	47% #28	35% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ND scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	6.6 #51	11.1 #23	17.7 #31	9.8 #11	10.9 #7	20.7 #4
CLEM allowed	5.1 #65	2.9 #5	8.0 #10	4.3 #35	6.5 #73	10.8 #49

CLEM scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	6.4 #58	9.1 #48	15.5 #56	7.3 #43	5.6 #94	12.9 #70
ND allowed	2.2 #9	2.2 #2	4.4 #2	4.9 #52	6.0 #61	10.9 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.