Boston College @ Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Fri, Nov 3, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Syracuse · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Boston College

5-3 · Power #75

▲ winner

Final

Syracuse

4-4 · Power #82

final

Closing spread

BC -1

✓ BC W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

BC 27–27 SYR

✓ BC (50%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBC -1

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBC -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBC -1

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BC as a 1-point road favorite at SYR, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BC won 17–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 2.4; 43.7 points a game (usually 54.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU @ WASH 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1	40–13	W	O45
Very close	VT @ BC 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1	3–17	L	U51
Very close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	6–34	L	U47
Very close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	UL @ UAB 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	24–20	W	U50.5
Very close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	17–21	L	U45
Very close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Very close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Close	UTAH @ COLO 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	38–21	W	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC LLWWL	3-5	38%	2-1	0-4
SYR PLLLL	3-4-1	43%	2-1-1	0-4

Venue/role: BC away, as favorite; SYR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC OP–OU	5-1-1	83%	5-3
SYR UU–UO	2-5	29%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 56% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BClast 8	5-3 63%	3-5 38%	5-1-1 83%
SYRlast 8	4-4 50%	3-4-1 43%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC−0.4 →−1.4▼ 1.0#73

SYR+6.3 →−0.6▼ 6.9#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

SYR

#64

Offense

◀ BC better

#78

#101

Defense

SYR better ▶

#54

−0.1 #78

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #70

72 plays #20

Pace

◀ BC faster

66 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #67	24.1 #56	Even
Yards / play	5.79 #63	5.35 #52	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #48	+0.07 #54	Even
Success rate	41% #77	40% #54	SYR

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: SYR offense

	SYR off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #75	28.4 #92	Even
Yards / play	5.57 #77	6.19 #116	SYR
PPA / play	+0.12 #69	+0.18 #103	SYR
Success rate	40% #90	44% #94	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BC scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.6 #100	7.8 #74	12.4 #89	6.4 #62	9.0 #20	15.4 #38
SYR allowed	7.3 #112	7.6 #77	14.9 #97	4.0 #28	5.3 #44	9.3 #27

SYR scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	6.8 #50	8.1 #69	14.9 #62	7.3 #43	4.3 #119	11.5 #92
BC allowed	4.8 #55	10.4 #114	15.1 #100	8.6 #119	3.9 #14	12.5 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.