Auburn @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Arkansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

5-4 · Power #40

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas

3-6 · Power #59

final

Closing spread

ARK -2.5

✓ AUB W

Total

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 22–24 ARK

✗ ARK (57%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARK -2.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseARK -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 49% (73 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARK -2.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARK as a 2.5-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: AUB won 48–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 47, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 2.5; 42.9 points a game (usually 54). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WVU vs TCU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	24–6	W	U44.5
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Very close	AUB vs TA&M 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	13–10	W	U48.5
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	UK vs LSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	42–21	W	O50.5
Very close	MSST vs UK 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-1	31–17	W	O47
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–38	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB WLLWW	4-5	44%	1-3	1-3
ARK LWWLW	5-4	56%	1-3	1-3

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; ARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB OOUPU	3-5-1	38%	5-4
ARK O–OUO	6-2	75%	3-6

Went over in Q3. Of 121 earlier overs in games with totals 43–51, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUBlast 9	5-4 56%	4-5 44%	3-5-1 38%
ARKlast 9	3-6 33%	5-4 56%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.4 →+5.8▼ 5.6#35

ARK+3.7 →+5.1▲ 1.4#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

AUB

Longer bar = better

ARK

#75

Offense

Even

#88

#48

Defense

Even

#50

+0.4 #35

Turnovers

◀ AUB better

+0.2 #50

64 plays #100

Pace

ARK faster ▶

66 plays #75

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: ARK defense

	AUB off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	27.2 #72	24.3 #60	Even
Yards / play	5.58 #76	5.50 #64	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #76	+0.03 #35	ARK
Success rate	41% #76	39% #39	ARK

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: AUB defense

	ARK off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #67	21.7 #40	AUB
Yards / play	4.90 #118	5.55 #69	AUB
PPA / play	+0.12 #71	+0.05 #41	AUB
Success rate	40% #96	39% #43	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.1 #61	8.3 #65	14.4 #67	6.9 #51	5.9 #93	12.8 #73
ARK allowed	6.4 #98	6.8 #54	13.2 #74	5.6 #62	5.2 #41	10.8 #44

ARK scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	8.7 #17	5.2 #121	13.9 #72	5.6 #83	7.8 #45	13.3 #61
AUB allowed	5.6 #73	3.0 #4	8.6 #19	7.3 #107	5.8 #52	13.1 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.