Mississippi State @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Arkansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

3-3 · Power #64

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas

2-5 · Power #59

final

Closing spread

ARK -7

✓ MSST W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 10 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 22–29 ARK

✗ ARK (70%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARK -7

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseARK -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Line context

Home favorites of 5–9 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARK -7

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARK as a 7-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MSST won 7–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 10 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.7 against an average line of 6.4; 52.5 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-6	34–17	W	O47
Very close	SC vs MSST 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-6	37–30	W	O47
Very close	WASH vs CAL 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–24	L	O47.5
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5
Very close	OKST vs USA 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	7–33	L	U49.25
Very close	TENN vs UK 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	7–34	L	U45.5
Very close	UK vs SC 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-4.5	14–24	L	U44.5
Very close	TA&M vs MSST 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	22–26	L	O45.5
Very close	ISU vs WVU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-6.5	31–14	W	U49.5
Very close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	48–41	W	O44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST LLLLL	1-5	17%	0-1	0-3
ARK LWLWW	4-3	57%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; ARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST UOOOO	4-2	67%	3-3
ARK OOO–O	5-1	83%	2-5

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 57% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSSTlast 6	3-3 50%	1-5 17%	4-2 67%
ARKlast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MSST 16–19 ARK (1 tied) ARK leads · 36 games since 1916 · MSST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+2.3 →+0.5▼ 1.8#60

ARK+3.7 →+5.3▲ 1.6#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MSST

Longer bar = better

ARK

#68

Offense

Even

#77

#99

Defense

ARK better ▶

#59

+0.2 #54

Turnovers

ARK better ▶

+0.6 #28

62 plays #115

Pace

ARK faster ▶

64 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #54	25.1 #67	Even
Yards / play	6.06 #54	5.61 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #66	+0.04 #44	ARK
Success rate	40% #99	40% #52	ARK

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: ARK offense

	ARK off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #61	29.5 #97	ARK
Yards / play	4.98 #116	5.90 #91	MSST
PPA / play	+0.17 #53	+0.13 #88	ARK
Success rate	41% #79	46% #120	ARK

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	4.5 #98	9.7 #44	14.2 #75	7.5 #46	7.3 #56	14.8 #51
ARK allowed	6.3 #91	7.3 #74	13.6 #82	6.3 #83	5.3 #48	11.6 #56

ARK scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	8.7 #21	6.3 #109	15.0 #65	6.7 #62	8.1 #42	14.9 #50
MSST allowed	5.2 #67	10.8 #118	16.0 #101	6.8 #89	6.7 #74	13.5 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.