Tennessee @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee

5-1 · Power #15

final

Final

Alabama

6-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -8.5

✓ ALA W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 20–28 ALA

✓ ALA (72%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -8.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseALA -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 52% (62 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -8.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as an 8.5-point home favorite against TENN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 34–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 6.9; 45.5 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs OKST 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	24–21	L	U47
Very close	UGA vs AUB 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	27–6	W	U44.5
Very close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Very close	TA&M vs MSST 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	22–26	L	O45.5
Very close	TA&M vs AUB 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9	27–10	W	U51
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	31–16	W	U52
Very close	ISU vs WVU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	42–6	W	P48
Close	TENN vs UK 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	7–34	L	U45.5
Close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Close	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN LLWWW	4-2	67%	0-1	—
ALA LWWWL	4-3	57%	2-2	4-3

Venue/role: TENN away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN UUPOU	2-3-1	40%	5-1
ALA UUO–O	3-2	60%	6-1

Went over in Q4. Of 87 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENNlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	2-3-1 40%
ALAlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+9.7 →+13.8▲ 4.1#14

ALA+13.1 →+16.5▲ 3.4#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TENN

Longer bar = better

ALA

#42

Offense

◀ TENN better

#58

#11

Defense

Even

#14

+0.2 #52

Turnovers

ALA better ▶

+0.4 #36

71 plays #39

Pace

◀ TENN faster

62 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	TENN off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #38	16.0 #13	ALA
Yards / play	6.30 #42	4.48 #16	ALA
PPA / play	+0.17 #50	−0.02 #22	ALA
Success rate	46% #36	32% #6	ALA

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	ALA off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	30.1 #57	17.0 #18	TENN
Yards / play	5.92 #59	4.41 #11	TENN
PPA / play	+0.20 #45	−0.09 #8	TENN
Success rate	42% #71	31% #5	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	8.7 #22	8.5 #66	17.2 #45	6.8 #60	9.5 #22	16.3 #28
ALA allowed	3.1 #32	4.9 #23	8.0 #14	3.4 #22	4.6 #34	8.0 #20

ALA scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	5.9 #73	9.1 #55	15.0 #63	8.9 #21	6.3 #78	15.1 #42
TENN allowed	4.3 #51	4.8 #21	9.2 #29	5.2 #62	2.7 #5	7.8 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.