Texas A&M @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F15 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Texas A&M

4-2 · Power #17

final

Final

Tennessee

4-1 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -3.5

✓ TENN W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 25–28 TENN

✓ TENN (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -3.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTENN -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 43% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -3.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 3.5-point home favorite against TA&M, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 20–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.7 against an average line of 3.5; 51.9 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OU vs ISU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	28–21	W	U59
Very close	ARK vs MSST 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	31–28	L	O53.5
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.5	23–38	L	O54.5
Close	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5
Close	OKST vs TEX 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	34–41	L	O58.5
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	20–3	W	U49.5
Close	WASH vs ORST 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-4.5	24–21	L	U53.5
Close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Close	UCLA vs ASU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-3	23–42	L	O56
Close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	29–31	L	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M LWWWL	4-2	67%	0-1	0-1
TENN WLLWW	3-2	60%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: TA&M away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M OUUO–	3-2	60%	4-2
TENN OUUPO	2-2-1	50%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 49% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&Mlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	3-2 60%
TENNlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-2-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+10.3 →+14.9▲ 4.6#11

TENN+9.7 →+13.7▲ 4.0#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

TA&M

Longer bar = better

TENN

#38

Offense

Even

#27

#29

Defense

TENN better ▶

#12

−0.5 #108

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

0.0 #67

67 plays #66

Pace

TENN faster ▶

70 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	TA&M off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #24	17.8 #23	Even
Yards / play	6.26 #43	4.40 #10	TENN
PPA / play	+0.20 #45	−0.08 #10	TENN
Success rate	46% #40	31% #3	TENN

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	36.2 #20	19.8 #35	Even
Yards / play	6.62 #27	4.73 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #32	+0.05 #49	Even
Success rate	48% #29	32% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	7.2 #45	12.7 #14	19.8 #16	8.3 #35	7.3 #62	15.7 #40
TENN allowed	3.8 #42	5.2 #30	9.0 #32	5.6 #70	3.2 #11	8.8 #27

TENN scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	9.0 #21	10.2 #37	19.2 #21	6.8 #62	10.2 #15	17.0 #26
TA&M allowed	2.2 #11	6.2 #46	8.3 #24	6.2 #77	5.3 #49	11.5 #60

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.