South Carolina @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F11 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

South Carolina

2-5 · Power #47

final

Final

Texas A&M

4-3 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -17

✓ SC W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 18–35 TA&M

✓ TA&M (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTA&M -17

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTA&M -17

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTA&M -17

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 17-point home favorite against SC, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 30–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17 against an average line of 16.4; 52.2 points a game (usually 55.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ASU vs WSU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	21–34	L	O54.5
Very close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & total	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Close	BAY vs TTU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & team ratings	-14	27–24	L	U51.5
Close	PSU vs ILL 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-16	56–21	W	O53.5
Close	CLEM vs SC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & team ratings	-14	30–31	L	O53
Close	PUR vs IU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-17.5	44–7	W	O50.5
Close	ORE vs CAL 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-13.5	24–17	L	U53.5
Close	ND vs GT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-18	55–0	W	U57.75
Close	ND vs STAN 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-16.5	14–16	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	1-3
TA&M WWWLL	4-3	57%	3-1	4-1

Venue/role: SC away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC UOOOU	4-3	57%	2-5
TA&M UUO–U	3-3	50%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 58% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SClast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
TA&Mlast 7	4-3 57%	4-3 57%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC−1.6 →+1.6▲ 3.2#55

TA&M+10.3 →+13.2▲ 2.9#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#60

Offense

Even

#52

#117

Defense

TA&M better ▶

#22

−0.1 #85

Turnovers

◀ SC better

−0.6 #115

67 plays #74

Pace

Even

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	SC off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #82	19.9 #33	TA&M
Yards / play	5.88 #60	4.72 #19	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.19 #42	+0.01 #31	Even
Success rate	43% #56	33% #6	TA&M

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TA&M offense

	TA&M off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #42	31.7 #115	TA&M
Yards / play	6.02 #53	6.33 #125	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.15 #60	+0.20 #117	TA&M
Success rate	44% #54	45% #109	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SC scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	7.4 #36	8.1 #73	15.6 #57	5.1 #93	5.9 #87	11.0 #98
TA&M allowed	2.9 #17	5.3 #25	8.1 #14	6.3 #82	5.4 #48	11.7 #63

TA&M scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	7.1 #46	11.3 #18	18.4 #23	7.6 #42	6.3 #78	13.9 #59
SC allowed	7.9 #117	9.7 #106	17.6 #118	6.9 #95	7.3 #86	14.1 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.