Florida @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at South Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F14 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Florida

4-2 · Power #36

▲ winner

Final

South Carolina

2-3 · Power #47

final

Closing spread

SC -1.5

✓ FLA W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 24–24 SC

✗ SC (52%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseSC -1.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSC -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 49% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseSC -1.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SC as a 1.5-point home favorite against FLA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 41–39 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 2.1; 44.4 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT vs ND 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	29–32	L	O47
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Very close	STAN vs WASH 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	WVU vs PITT 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-2.5	17–6	W	U47.75
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	24–10	W	U55
Very close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Very close	BYU vs CIN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	35–27	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA LWLLW	2-4	33%	0-2	1-2
SC LWWWL	3-2	60%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: FLA away, as underdog; SC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA OUUO–	2-2	50%	4-2
SC UOUOO	3-2	60%	2-3

Went over in Q3. Of 83 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-2 50%
SClast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

FLA 31–11 SC (3 tied) FLA leads · 45 games since 1911 · SC has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA−1.7 →+6.7▲ 8.4#30

SC−1.6 →+2.7▲ 4.3#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

FLA

Longer bar = better

#52

Offense

Even

#58

#34

Defense

◀ FLA better

#103

−0.7 #112

Turnovers

SC better ▶

+0.4 #47

66 plays #84

Pace

SC faster ▶

67 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	27.2 #84	29.4 #97	Even
Yards / play	6.22 #45	6.19 #113	FLA
PPA / play	+0.19 #46	+0.15 #98	FLA
Success rate	47% #31	44% #105	FLA

When SC has the ball

Advantage: FLA defense

	SC off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #85	16.8 #18	FLA
Yards / play	5.96 #60	5.40 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #43	+0.05 #50	Even
Success rate	44% #45	32% #6	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	6.5 #53	10.0 #43	16.5 #52	5.5 #86	5.2 #96	10.7 #101
SC allowed	6.2 #96	8.8 #97	15.0 #93	9.0 #119	5.4 #51	14.4 #98

SC scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	7.6 #35	9.4 #52	17.0 #43	5.4 #87	4.6 #110	10.0 #107
FLA allowed	6.2 #94	4.0 #13	10.2 #42	4.0 #36	2.7 #7	6.7 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.