Arkansas @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F9 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas

2-4 · Power #59

final

Final

Alabama

5-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -19.5

✓ ARK W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 13–32 ALA

✓ ALA (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -19.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseALA -19.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -19.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 19.5-point home favorite against ARK, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 20.7 against an average line of 18.6; 47.7 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Very close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	MICH vs ILL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-17	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Close	ND vs BC 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-20	44–0	W	O42
Close	CLEM vs WAKE 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-21	17–12	L	U53
Close	CIN vs NAVY 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	20–10	L	U43.5
Close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-22	49–27	P	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK LLWLW	3-3	50%	2-0	2-1
ALA LLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	4-2

Venue/role: ARK away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK UOOO–	4-1	80%	2-4
ALA OUUO–	2-2	50%	5-1

Went over in Q4. Of 50 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARKlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	4-1 80%
ALAlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARK 7–27 ALA ALA leads · 34 games since 1961 · ALA has won the last 17 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+3.7 →+5.3▲ 1.6#37

ALA+13.1 →+17.4▲ 4.3#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ARK

Longer bar = better

ALA

#68

Offense

Even

#59

#57

Defense

ALA better ▶

#15

+0.7 #27

Turnovers

◀ ARK better

+0.5 #41

65 plays #90

Pace

◀ ARK faster

62 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	ARK off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #54	15.2 #14	ALA
Yards / play	5.11 #111	4.53 #17	ALA
PPA / play	+0.17 #52	−0.04 #18	ALA
Success rate	44% #54	32% #9	ALA

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #56	25.3 #69	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #66	5.45 #65	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #49	0.00 #33	Even
Success rate	43% #64	40% #60	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	9.2 #21	7.3 #88	16.5 #53	6.7 #65	8.2 #44	14.8 #51
ALA allowed	2.7 #23	5.7 #38	8.3 #23	2.8 #18	4.0 #23	6.8 #13

ALA scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	5.7 #76	8.3 #75	14.0 #76	9.8 #16	7.3 #62	17.2 #24
ARK allowed	6.2 #91	6.2 #46	12.3 #71	6.8 #90	6.2 #64	13.0 #79

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.