Syracuse @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Florida State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Syracuse

4-2 · Power #82

final

Final

Florida State

5-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

FSU -19.5

✓ FSU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 19–37 FSU

✓ FSU (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -19.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFSU -19.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -19.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 19.5-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 41–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 21.6 against an average line of 19.4; 56.8 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OU vs WVU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	16–13	L	U56.5
Close	CLEM vs WAKE 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-21	17–12	L	U53
Close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Close	ALA vs ARK 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	42–35	L	O58.5
Close	TENN vs MIZ 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-19	66–24	W	O57.5
Close	CIN vs UCF 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-21.5	56–21	W	O56
Close	CIN vs IU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-16.5	45–24	W	O57
Close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	APP vs USA 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-21.5	31–7	W	U51.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR WWPLL	3-2-1	60%	1-1	0-2
FSU WWLWL	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; FSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR UUUU–	1-4	20%	4-2
FSU –OOU–	2-1	67%	5-0

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYRlast 6	4-2 67%	3-2-1 60%	1-4 20%
FSUlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR+6.3 →+4.7▼ 1.6#38

FSU+6.4 →+15.0▲ 8.6#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

SYR

Longer bar = better

FSU

#67

Offense

FSU better ▶

#26

#45

Defense

Even

#43

0.0 #65

Turnovers

FSU better ▶

+0.8 #21

69 plays #53

Pace

◀ SYR faster

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: FSU defense

	SYR off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #73	18.3 #26	FSU
Yards / play	5.78 #67	5.32 #57	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #64	+0.06 #53	Even
Success rate	42% #62	38% #35	FSU

When FSU has the ball

Even matchup

	FSU off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	42.2 #6	22.1 #47	FSU
Yards / play	7.02 #12	5.14 #41	FSU
PPA / play	+0.27 #21	+0.03 #42	FSU
Success rate	42% #65	39% #50	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	9.0 #24	9.8 #46	18.8 #27	8.5 #32	5.7 #92	14.2 #61
FSU allowed	3.4 #36	8.0 #81	11.4 #62	5.4 #64	4.6 #34	10.0 #39

FSU scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	9.2 #20	10.4 #33	19.6 #18	13.0 #2	8.4 #39	21.4 #5
SYR allowed	6.3 #99	5.7 #38	12.0 #66	3.3 #25	3.7 #19	7.0 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.