Louisville @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F9 mphgusts 19Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Louisville

6-0 · Power #21

final

Final

Pittsburgh

1-4 · Power #77

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -7.5

✓ PITT W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 28–20 PITT

✗ LOU (72%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -7.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLOU -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -7.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 7.5-point road favorite at PITT, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 38–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 7.4; 53.6 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8	21–17	L	U44.5
Close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	19–24	L	P43
Close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Close	AUB @ SC 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-7	17–21	L	U45.25
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Close	WISC @ MSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	28–34	L	O49.5
Close	ASU @ WASH 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-6	35–30	L	O45.5
Close	ILL @ NEB 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	26–9	W	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-1	2-3
PITT WLLLL	1-4	20%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: LOU away, as favorite; PITT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OUOU–	2-2	50%	6-0
PITT OOUOO	4-1	80%	1-4

Went over in Q3. Of 75 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOUlast 6	6-0 100%	3-3 50%	2-2 50%
PITTlast 5	1-4 20%	1-4 20%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+2.1 →+9.6▲ 7.5#23

PITT+3.7 →−2.7▼ 6.4#80

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

LOU

Longer bar = better

PITT

#14

Offense

◀ LOU better

#116

#25

Defense

◀ LOU better

#43

+1.0 #13

Turnovers

◀ LOU better

−0.8 #116

66 plays #85

Pace

◀ LOU faster

60 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #19	26.0 #73	LOU
Yards / play	7.10 #10	4.80 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #12	+0.04 #47	LOU
Success rate	50% #16	37% #27	Even

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	PITT off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #100	17.7 #22	LOU
Yards / play	5.13 #107	5.11 #39	LOU
PPA / play	−0.08 #133	−0.05 #15	LOU
Success rate	37% #123	36% #25	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	6.8 #49	11.7 #21	18.5 #30	9.7 #16	8.2 #41	17.8 #18
PITT allowed	4.8 #67	10.4 #111	15.2 #95	8.8 #119	2.0 #3	10.8 #49

PITT scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	6.2 #60	6.8 #102	13.0 #88	6.2 #70	4.2 #117	10.4 #106
LOU allowed	0.0 #1	9.8 #105	9.8 #39	4.5 #45	3.3 #12	7.8 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.