Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Washington · Conference game
Closing spread
WASH -3.5
✓ ORE W
Total
68.5
▲ Over · 69 pts
Model before kickoff
ORE 32–35 WASH
✓ WASH (59%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
Opennot available
CloseWASH -3.5
Total68.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseWASH -3.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close68.5
Line context
Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 43% (42 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
Opennot available
CloseWASH -3.5
Total68.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 4 games most like 
WASH as a 3.5-point home favorite against ORE, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.
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This game: WASH won 36–33; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 4 similar games. 69 points went over 68.5, as in 2 of 4.
Favorite won
4 of 4100%
Normal range · usually 60%
Favorite covered
3 of 475%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
2 of 450%
Normal range · usually 48%
Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 4.3; 65.8 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›
All 4 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  MD vs  SMU2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & season form |
-3 | 34–27 | W | U73.75 |
| Loose |  UTAH vs  USC2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 43–42 | L | O65 |
| Loose |  ORE vs  UCLA2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-7 | 45–30 | W | O70.75 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 25–17 | W | U60 |
WSUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Washington ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Oregon ATS trend (5-0)
Oregon have covered 100% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 338-337 (50%)
Washington ATS trend (3-1-1)
Washington have covered 75% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 338-337 (50%)
Washington 3-1-1 ATS as a favorite
Covering consistently in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 271-262 (51%)
Both teams trending Under (7-2 combined)
Their games this season have mostly stayed under the total. · Backtest 2023–26: 48-54 (47%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 7 earlier overs in games with totals 64.5–72.5, 43% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORElast 5 | 5-0 100% | 5-0 100% | 1-4 20% |
| WASHlast 5 | 5-0 100% | 3-1-1 75% | 1-3 25% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
ORE+8.3 →+20.3▲ 12.0#3
WASH+9.9 →+19.4▲ 9.5#5
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6
ORELonger bar = better
WASH#2
Offense
Even#2
#9
Defense
◀ ORE better#34
+1.0 #16
Turnovers
◀ ORE better+0.6 #32
69 plays #52
Pace
◀ ORE faster65 plays #93
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When ORE has the ball| ORE off | WASH def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 51.6 #2 | 18.4 #27 | ORE |
| Yards / play | 8.08 #3 | 5.07 #35 | ORE |
| PPA / play | +0.54 #1 | −0.02 #27 | ORE |
| Success rate | 57% #2 | 39% #46 | ORE |
When WASH has the ball| WASH off | ORE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 46.0 #3 | 11.8 #5 | Even |
| Yards / play | 8.81 #1 | 4.02 #4 | Even |
| PPA / play | +0.52 #2 | −0.09 #7 | Even |
| Success rate | 61% #1 | 35% #18 | Even |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams
ORE scoring against the WASH defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORE scored | 14.8 #2 | 15.4 #5 | 30.2 #1 | 11.8 #4 | 9.6 #22 | 21.4 #5 |
| WASH allowed | 3.0 #30 | 4.4 #18 | 7.4 #15 | 4.2 #40 | 6.8 #73 | 11.0 #52 |
WASH scoring against the ORE defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WASH scored | 13.2 #4 | 17.0 #1 | 30.2 #1 | 8.2 #36 | 7.6 #53 | 15.8 #38 |
| ORE allowed | 3.4 #36 | 2.4 #3 | 5.8 #7 | 2.8 #15 | 3.2 #11 | 6.0 #9 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
WASH +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
61° · 3 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ORE14d bye
WASH14d bye
Even
Tempo
Average 134 plays
slowavg 134fast
Schedules, links & other games
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