Auburn @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Weather at kickoff90°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

3-0 · Power #40

final

Final

Texas A&M

2-1 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -10

✓ TA&M W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 22–32 TA&M

✓ TA&M (76%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTA&M -10

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTA&M -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTA&M -10

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 10-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 27–10; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 9.1; 49.3 points a game (usually 55). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75
Very close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Close	ARK vs SC 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	44–30	W	O56.25
Close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-14	27–21	L	U50
Close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-7	31–16	W	U52
Close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Close	FLA vs UK 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	16–26	L	U52.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	—
TA&M WLW	2-1	67%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB OUU	1-2	33%	3-0
TA&M OOU	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 56% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUBlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
TA&Mlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

AUB 7–9 TA&M TA&M leads · 16 games since 1911 · TA&M has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.4 →+11.1▼ 0.3#19

TA&M+10.3 →+17.3▲ 7.0#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

AUB

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#61

Offense

TA&M better ▶

#27

#39

Defense

Even

#46

+0.3 #59

Turnovers

◀ AUB better

−0.5 #102

67 plays #67

Pace

TA&M faster ▶

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Even matchup

	AUB off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #51	17.8 #39	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #82	4.85 #47	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.12 #74	+0.10 #82	Even
Success rate	48% #38	33% #16	TA&M

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	39.8 #22	16.0 #33	Even
Yards / play	6.53 #30	4.81 #45	Even
PPA / play	+0.34 #16	−0.04 #36	Even
Success rate	48% #39	36% #42	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	3.3 #100	15.0 #15	18.3 #41	11.7 #10	9.3 #33	21.0 #12
TA&M allowed	2.3 #20	8.0 #84	10.3 #61	4.3 #54	5.7 #63	10.0 #59

TA&M scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	9.0 #29	17.3 #6	26.3 #11	8.7 #34	9.0 #41	17.7 #32
AUB allowed	3.3 #48	2.3 #12	5.7 #14	4.3 #54	2.3 #9	6.7 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.