UTSA @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Tennessee

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

UTSA

1-2 · Power #56

final

Final

Tennessee

2-1 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -20.5

✓ TENN W

Total

Push · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 18–37 TENN

✓ TENN (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -20.5

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTENN -20.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -20.5

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 20.5-point home favorite against UTSA, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 45–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points landed on 59, as in 0 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20 against an average line of 19.2; 58.2 points a game (usually 56.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USC vs CAL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-21	41–35	L	O61
Close	UNC vs FSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-17.5	25–35	L	U64.5
Close	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-21	27–10	L	U56.5
Close	ORE vs STAN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-17.5	45–27	W	O63
Close	ND vs GT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-18	55–0	W	U57.75
Close	CIN vs IU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-16.5	45–24	W	O57
Close	WAKE vs BC 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-20	43–15	W	U60
Close	OU vs TTU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-19	52–21	W	O67
Close	ARIZ vs UTEP 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-18.25	31–10	W	U57.25
Close	OU vs BAY 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-23	27–14	L	U61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	—
TENN WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: UTSA away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
TENN OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

In 89 games with totals 55–63, 42% went over; 5% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 41% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSAlast 3	1-2 33%	0-3 0%	1-2 33%
TENNlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+0.7 →+1.1▲ 0.4#57

TENN+9.7 →+11.8▲ 2.1#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UTSA

Longer bar = better

TENN

#92

Offense

TENN better ▶

#46

#61

Defense

TENN better ▶

#26

−1.7 #133

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

−0.3 #87

71 plays #34

Pace

Even

71 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	UTSA off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #108	18.3 #41	TENN
Yards / play	5.42 #88	4.32 #17	TENN
PPA / play	+0.05 #98	−0.03 #37	TENN
Success rate	41% #75	30% #7	TENN

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #55	22.3 #65	Even
Yards / play	6.27 #40	4.76 #43	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #43	+0.07 #67	TENN
Success rate	47% #44	39% #67	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	3.3 #103	7.0 #95	10.3 #106	4.7 #96	6.0 #75	10.7 #93
TENN allowed	3.0 #38	8.7 #91	11.7 #77	2.3 #22	4.3 #43	6.7 #20

TENN scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	5.7 #67	8.0 #79	13.7 #77	9.0 #30	9.0 #36	18.0 #26
UTSA allowed	7.0 #107	6.3 #62	13.3 #87	5.7 #77	3.3 #21	9.0 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.