Florida Atlantic @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Illinois

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Florida Atlantic

1-2 · Power #105

final

Final

Illinois

1-2 · Power #67

▲ winner

Closing spread

ILL -16

✓ FAU W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

FAU 19–33 ILL

✓ ILL (85%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseILL -16

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseILL -16

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseILL -16

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 16-point home favorite against FAU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 23–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 45.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Below normal · usually 84%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Wins below normal, overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 14.3; 53.9 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIZ vs VAN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-14	17–14	L	U49
Close	NAVY vs TEM 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	27–20	L	O41.5
Close	LT vs USM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-15.5	19–35	L	O47.5
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Close	MSU vs IU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-12	31–39	L	O47.25
Close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	17–14	L	U47
Close	VT vs DUKE 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-13	48–17	W	O50.5
Close	WYO vs HAW 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-13	14–38	L	O48.5
Close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-1
ILL LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: FAU away, as underdog; ILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU OUO	2-1	67%	1-2
ILL –UU	0-2	0%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAUlast 3	1-2 33%	0-3 0%	2-1 67%
ILLlast 3	1-2 33%	0-3 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FAU−0.2 →−7.5▼ 7.3#101

ILL−0.7 →−2.8▼ 2.1#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

FAU

Longer bar = better

ILL

#115

Offense

ILL better ▶

#74

#77

Defense

◀ FAU better

#111

−1.0 #121

Turnovers

Even

−1.7 #131

66 plays #71

Pace

◀ FAU faster

64 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FAU has the ball

Even matchup

	FAU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #105	30.7 #111	Even
Yards / play	4.88 #112	5.84 #100	Even
PPA / play	−0.09 #132	+0.23 #116	Even
Success rate	39% #109	46% #115	Even

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #106	28.3 #97	Even
Yards / play	5.60 #81	4.85 #44	FAU
PPA / play	+0.10 #81	+0.04 #61	Even
Success rate	51% #29	45% #107	ILL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

FAU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	4.7 #80	8.0 #77	12.7 #92	4.7 #96	4.7 #95	9.3 #104
ILL allowed	7.7 #117	11.0 #113	18.7 #117	6.7 #89	5.3 #58	12.0 #78

ILL scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	2.3 #112	4.7 #112	7.0 #124	7.0 #53	8.0 #47	15.0 #51
FAU allowed	9.0 #122	9.3 #96	18.3 #112	4.7 #59	5.3 #58	10.0 #59

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.