Charlotte @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Florida

Weather at kickoff83°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Charlotte

1-2 · Power #124

final

Final

Florida

2-1 · Power #36

▲ winner

Closing spread

FLA -28

✓ CLT W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 10–38 FLA

✓ FLA (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFLA -28

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFLA -28

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFLA -28

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FLA as a 28-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: FLA won 22–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 58%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 26.1 against an average line of 27.4; 51.7 points a game (usually 58.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-27.5	37–0	W	U48
Very close	UK vs AKR 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & situation	-25.25	35–3	W	U48.5
Very close	IOWA vs WMU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-28.5	41–10	W	O43.25
Very close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Close	MSST vs BGSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-31	45–14	P	O53
Close	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Close	ORE vs COLO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	52–29	L	O49.5
Close	BAY vs TXST 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-30	42–7	W	U53
Close	MIZ vs NMSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-29	45–14	W	O46.5
Close	ND vs UNLV 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-26	44–21	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-1
FLA LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; FLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT UOO	2-1	67%	1-2
FLA –OU	1-1	50%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLTlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
FLAlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLT 0–1 FLA FLA leads · 1 game since 2023 · FLA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−0.6 →−12.2▼ 11.6#126

FLA−1.7 →+8.3▲ 10.0#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CLT

Longer bar = better

FLA

#101

Offense

FLA better ▶

#48

#91

Defense

FLA better ▶

#34

−1.0 #119

Turnovers

FLA better ▶

−0.3 #83

61 plays #120

Pace

FLA faster ▶

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: FLA defense

	CLT off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #98	15.7 #30	FLA
Yards / play	5.52 #85	4.90 #49	FLA
PPA / play	−0.03 #120	0.00 #52	FLA
Success rate	39% #99	30% #4	FLA

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #67	27.3 #95	FLA
Yards / play	6.09 #48	6.43 #122	FLA
PPA / play	+0.20 #48	+0.13 #89	FLA
Success rate	48% #30	38% #58	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

CLT scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	4.7 #88	9.0 #63	13.7 #76	5.0 #90	4.3 #104	9.3 #108
FLA allowed	4.7 #77	3.3 #21	8.0 #37	3.3 #35	4.3 #43	7.7 #27

FLA scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.3 #47	11.0 #39	18.3 #38	5.3 #84	6.0 #75	11.3 #86
CLT allowed	2.3 #19	8.3 #90	10.7 #64	7.3 #104	9.3 #111	16.7 #119

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.