Akron @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Kentucky

Weather at kickoff66°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Akron

1-1 · Power #130

final

Final

Kentucky

2-0 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

UK -25

✓ UK W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 13–35 UK

✓ UK (94%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUK -25

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUK -25

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUK -25

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 25-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UK won 35–3; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.3 against an average line of 24.6; 52.5 points a game (usually 56.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN vs USF 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-22	28–7	L	U45.5
Close	ORE vs COLO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-24.5	52–29	L	O49.5
Close	AFA vs NEV 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-24	48–20	W	O47
Loose	SJSU vs NEV 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-24.5	35–28	L	O44.5
Loose	FSU vs GT 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & spread	-23.5	41–16	W	O48
Loose	LIB vs ODU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-27.5	45–17	W	O53
Loose	AUB vs SJSU 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-24	24–16	L	U48.5
Loose	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Loose	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread & rest	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Loose	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-25.5	17–7	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0
UK WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR –U	0-1	0%	1-1
UK OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 56% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKRlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-1 0%
UKlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

AKR 0–2 UK UK leads · 2 games since 2010 · UK has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−1.0 →−3.4▼ 2.4#88

UK+6.1 →+1.6▼ 4.5#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

AKR

Longer bar = better

#118

Offense

UK better ▶

#52

#32

Defense

Even

#42

−1.5 #123

Turnovers

UK better ▶

+1.0 #27

58 plays #126

Pace

Even

56 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: UK defense

	AKR off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #101	15.5 #38	UK
Yards / play	4.73 #120	4.77 #47	UK
PPA / play	−0.23 #131	−0.10 #27	UK
Success rate	35% #120	37% #54	UK

When UK has the ball

Even matchup

	UK off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #42	22.5 #65	UK
Yards / play	6.86 #24	3.92 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #57	−0.13 #20	AKR
Success rate	41% #85	34% #31	AKR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 102 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	5.0	14.0	19.0	0.0	3.5	3.5
UK allowed	7.0	0.0	7.0	5.0	3.5	8.5

UK scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	1.5	13.5	15.0	14.0	7.0	21.0
AKR allowed	0.0	8.5	8.5	10.0	4.0	14.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.