Ohio @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F15 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ohio

3-1 · Power #63

▲ winner

Final

Bowling Green

1-2 · Power #80

final

Closing spread

OHIO -13

✓ OHIO W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 26–16 BGSU

✓ OHIO (77%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -13

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOHIO -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -13

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 13-point road favorite at BGSU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 38–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.1 against an average line of 12.2; 51.3 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UAB @ LT 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-12.75	34–37	L	O47
Close	TROY @ ARST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	48–19	W	O44
Close	AFA @ UNM 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-11.5	38–10	W	O45.5
Close	CSU @ UNM 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-13	36–7	W	U44.75
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Close	LOU @ BC 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	33–34	L	O48.25
Close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Close	BSU @ WYO 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar total & rest	-9.5	17–9	L	U46.5
Close	TROY @ USM 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	21–9	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	0-1
BGSU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: OHIO away, as favorite; BGSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO –UUU	0-3	0%	3-1
BGSU –OU	1-1	50%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIOlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	0-3 0%
BGSUlast 3	1-2 33%	3-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO+0.9 →−5.2▼ 6.1#92

BGSU−3.0 →−8.1▼ 5.1#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

OHIO

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#101

Offense

◀ OHIO better

#117

#10

Defense

◀ OHIO better

#100

+0.4 #49

Turnovers

◀ OHIO better

−1.3 #128

68 plays #52

Pace

◀ OHIO faster

59 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Even matchup

	OHIO off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #109	29.5 #106	Even
Yards / play	4.76 #123	5.94 #107	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #105	+0.14 #95	Even
Success rate	43% #65	43% #92	OHIO

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	BGSU off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #121	10.8 #8	OHIO
Yards / play	5.31 #96	4.38 #16	OHIO
PPA / play	−0.11 #133	−0.21 #2	OHIO
Success rate	36% #119	32% #15	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	1.5 #127	6.0 #106	7.5 #123	6.0 #75	3.3 #117	9.3 #108
BGSU allowed	6.7 #102	10.0 #103	16.7 #109	8.0 #106	2.0 #3	10.0 #59

BGSU scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	2.3 #112	11.3 #39	13.7 #80	6.7 #69	2.3 #120	9.0 #111
OHIO allowed	0.8 #7	5.0 #41	5.8 #14	0.0 #1	6.0 #70	6.0 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.