Ole Miss @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Auburn · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

5-1 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Auburn

3-3 · Power #40

final

Closing spread

MISS -6.5

✓ MISS W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 32–25 AUB

✓ MISS (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -6.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMISS -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -6.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 6.5-point road favorite at AUB, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 28–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 55.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 7.1; 57.6 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH @ WSU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.25	21–17	L	U56.5
Very close	PITT @ VT 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.25	28–7	W	U55.75
Very close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Very close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	TCU @ ISU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	14–27	L	U52.5
Very close	TEX @ KSU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	69–31	W	O53.5
Very close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Very close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Very close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS WWLWL	4-2	67%	1-1	3-1
AUB LLLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: MISS away, as favorite; AUB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS UOUO–	3-2	60%	5-1
AUB UUUOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISSlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	3-2 60%
AUBlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+4.5 →+14.2▲ 9.7#13

AUB+11.4 →+5.1▼ 6.3#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MISS

Longer bar = better

AUB

#17

Offense

◀ MISS better

#77

#70

Defense

Even

#70

+1.0 #13

Turnovers

◀ MISS better

+0.5 #31

69 plays #49

Pace

◀ MISS faster

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	41.7 #8	23.2 #54	MISS
Yards / play	7.06 #10	5.77 #86	MISS
PPA / play	+0.34 #10	+0.09 #69	MISS
Success rate	45% #41	42% #70	MISS

When AUB has the ball

Even matchup

	AUB off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #77	23.8 #61	Even
Yards / play	5.33 #98	5.20 #44	MISS
PPA / play	+0.08 #85	+0.12 #82	Even
Success rate	44% #48	44% #94	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	13.8 #2	5.0 #121	18.8 #25	9.2 #19	13.7 #2	22.8 #1
AUB allowed	5.5 #81	3.3 #7	8.8 #23	8.0 #108	6.3 #68	14.3 #96

AUB scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	3.3 #114	9.2 #52	12.5 #89	7.5 #45	7.7 #48	15.2 #42
MISS allowed	5.2 #75	6.2 #45	11.3 #54	6.3 #87	6.2 #65	12.5 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.