Washington @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Washington

7-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Stanford

2-5 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

WASH -27.5

✓ STAN W

Total

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 43–16 STAN

✓ WASH (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -27.5

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWASH -27.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close62

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -27.5

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 27.5-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 42–33; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 62, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 29.8 against an average line of 27.1; 66.6 points a game (usually 57.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ TULN 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-28	31–12	L	U61.5
Very close	ORE @ STAN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-27	42–6	W	U61
Close	CIN @ USF 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-24	45–28	L	O58.5
Close	CLEM @ GT 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-26.5	73–7	W	O64.5
Close	ORE @ COLO 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-31	49–10	W	U62.5
Close	UCF @ USF 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-25.5	58–46	L	O70.5
Close	MD @ CLT 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-28	56–21	W	O65
Close	TEX @ HOU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-23.5	31–24	L	U60.5
Close	OU @ TLSA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-28	66–17	W	O58.75
Loose	APP @ ULM 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-29	31–13	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH WWLLL	3-3-1	50%	1-1	3-3-1
STAN LWLWL	3-4	43%	1-3	2-3

Venue/role: WASH away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH UOUOU	2-4	33%	7-0
STAN UUUOU	2-5	29%	2-5

Went over in Q4. Of 46 earlier overs in games with totals 58–66, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASHlast 7	7-0 100%	3-3-1 50%	2-4 33%
STANlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+9.9 →+16.0▲ 6.1#11

STAN+2.6 →−9.8▼ 12.4#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WASH

Longer bar = better

STAN

Offense

◀ WASH better

#93

#40

Defense

◀ WASH better

#132

−0.1 #80

Turnovers

◀ WASH better

−0.6 #110

63 plays #107

Pace

STAN faster ▶

70 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	40.1 #7	36.9 #130	WASH
Yards / play	8.09 #1	6.52 #130	WASH
PPA / play	+0.39 #4	+0.32 #134	WASH
Success rate	57% #2	52% #134	WASH

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	STAN off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #109	18.9 #24	WASH
Yards / play	5.20 #100	5.19 #44	WASH
PPA / play	+0.11 #72	0.00 #28	WASH
Success rate	40% #91	41% #62	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	11.4 #7	13.7 #4	25.1 #3	6.9 #53	8.1 #32	15.0 #43
STAN allowed	7.4 #114	13.6 #133	21.0 #131	6.4 #88	8.4 #101	14.9 #100

STAN scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	2.9 #125	4.9 #123	7.7 #129	6.0 #69	6.1 #83	12.1 #84
WASH allowed	3.3 #27	5.6 #29	8.9 #23	4.1 #34	5.9 #59	10.0 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.