USC @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at California · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

USC

6-2 · Power #23

▲ winner

Final

California

3-4 · Power #57

final

Closing spread

USC -10

✓ CAL W

Total

67.5

▲ Over · 99 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 39–29 CAL

✓ USC (75%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSC -10

Total67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSC -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close67.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSC -10

Total67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 10-point road favorite at CAL, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 50–49; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 99 points went over 67.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 9.4; 62.7 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCLA @ ASU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-11	50–36	W	O67
Very close	OU @ WVU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-8.5	20–23	L	U68.5
Close	FLA @ MIZ 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-9	23–24	L	U69
Close	UNC @ DUKE 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & spread	-11.5	56–24	W	O63.5
Close	VT @ WAKE 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	16–23	L	U68.5
Close	UCLA @ CAL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & spread	-11.5	35–28	L	O62.5
Close	TCU @ HOU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.25	36–13	W	U64
Close	TCU @ WVU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-7	41–31	W	O69.75
Close	MD @ IU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-11	38–33	L	O63.5
Close	UCF @ LOU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar total & team ratings	-7	35–42	L	O67.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC LLLLL	2-6	25%	0-3	2-5
CAL LLLLL	2-5	29%	1-3	2-3

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; CAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC OO–OO	5-1	83%	6-2
CAL UOU–O	2-3	40%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 13 earlier overs in games with totals 63.5–71.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USClast 8	6-2 75%	2-6 25%	5-1 83%
CALlast 7	3-4 43%	2-5 29%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+9.1 →+10.9▲ 1.8#19

CAL+15.6 →+1.4▼ 14.2#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

USC

Longer bar = better

CAL

Offense

◀ USC better

#73

#95

Defense

◀ USC better

#110

−0.1 #73

Turnovers

CAL better ▶

+0.3 #50

63 plays #106

Pace

CAL faster ▶

74 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	45.4 #3	31.1 #113	USC
Yards / play	7.66 #4	5.99 #101	USC
PPA / play	+0.34 #6	+0.17 #98	USC
Success rate	49% #13	47% #126	USC

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: CAL offense

	CAL off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #54	30.5 #108	CAL
Yards / play	5.49 #81	5.81 #90	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #87	+0.18 #107	Even
Success rate	42% #71	42% #73	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USC scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	11.8 #6	12.5 #12	24.3 #5	8.1 #34	11.1 #7	19.3 #7
CAL allowed	7.9 #118	11.0 #118	18.9 #121	5.3 #59	7.0 #82	12.3 #68

CAL scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	5.3 #83	9.4 #41	14.7 #65	9.3 #13	5.9 #91	15.1 #41
USC allowed	5.6 #81	7.6 #77	13.3 #75	6.5 #90	9.1 #112	15.6 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.