TCU @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

TCU

1-1 · Power #30

▲ winner

Final

Houston

1-1 · Power #88

final

Closing spread

TCU -7.5

✓ TCU W

Total

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 34–26 HOU

✓ TCU (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTCU -7.5

Total64

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTCU -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close64

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTCU -7.5

Total64

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 7.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 1, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 36–13; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 64, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

1 of 911%

Below normal · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 7; 71.1 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	APP @ GASO 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	48–51	L	O66
Close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Close	UNC @ GAST 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-7	35–28	P	U64.25
Close	WMU @ EMU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-6	21–22	L	U66
Close	UCF @ LOU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	35–42	L	O67.5
Close	SMU @ TULN 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	37–34	L	O65
Close	FRES @ UNLV 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	37–30	L	O62
Close	UNC @ UVA 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	41–44	L	O61
Close	UNC @ UVA 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.25	31–28	L	U61.5
Close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	52–32	W	O59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU LL	0-2	0%	—	0-2
HOU WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: TCU away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU –U	0-1	0%	1-1
HOU UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 60–68 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCUlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	0-1 0%
HOUlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU−3.1 →+1.9▲ 5.0#51

HOU−2.3 →−5.6▼ 3.3#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

TCU

Longer bar = better

HOU

#27

Offense

◀ TCU better

#93

#100

Defense

Even

#106

−0.5 #104

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+2.0 #9

75 plays #17

Pace

Even

77 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #14	28.5 #97	TCU
Yards / play	6.60 #32	6.16 #113	TCU
PPA / play	+0.28 #34	+0.23 #114	TCU
Success rate	51% #27	44% #100	TCU

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #74	25.5 #88	Even
Yards / play	5.08 #107	5.31 #70	TCU
PPA / play	−0.01 #118	+0.20 #112	Even
Success rate	42% #72	49% #128	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 114 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	7.0	12.0	19.0	7.0	15.5	22.5
HOU allowed	14.0	3.5	17.5	0.0	3.5	3.5

HOU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	3.5	10.5	14.0
TCU allowed	3.5	6.5	10.0	8.5	7.0	15.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.