Houston @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Rice

Weather at kickoff97°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Houston

1-0 · Power #88

final

Final

Rice

0-1 · Power #90

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -7.5

✓ RICE W

Total

▲ Over · 84 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 29–22 RICE

✗ HOU (70%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -7.5

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseHOU -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -7.5

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 7.5-point road favorite at RICE, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: RICE won 43–41 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 84 points went over 51, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 7.6; 46.2 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GT @ SYR 2020 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	20–37	L	O52
Close	M-OH @ AKR 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-9	27–9	W	U51.5
Close	NEV @ HAW 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-6.25	16–31	L	U51.5
Close	FRES @ USU 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-11	35–16	W	U51.5
Close	HOU @ RICE 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	44–7	W	O50.5
Close	BGSU @ AKR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-9	31–28	L	O49.5
Close	CMU @ NIU 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	40–10	W	U57.5
Close	UNM @ USU 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-6	27–41	L	O49
Loose	CAL @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7	3–10	L	U47
Loose	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7	13–17	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU W	1-0	100%	—	—
RICE W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; RICE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU U	0-1	0%	1-0
RICE U	0-1	0%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 32 earlier overs in games with totals 47–55, 44% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%
RICElast 1	0-1 0%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

HOU

Longer bar = better

RICE

#103

Offense

◀ HOU better

#129

#72

Defense

◀ HOU better

#98

+3.0 #9

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−3.0 #127

72 plays #36

Pace

◀ HOU faster

51 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #105	37.0 #109	Even
Yards / play	4.64 #104	6.11 #101	Even
PPA / play	−0.06 #109	+0.08 #80	RICE
Success rate	39% #92	46% #102	Even

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	RICE off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	10.0 #123	14.0 #48	HOU
Yards / play	3.45 #129	5.87 #96	HOU
PPA / play	−0.47 #134	+0.07 #77	HOU
Success rate	29% #129	38% #67	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.