Texas State @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at UTSA

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Texas State

1-0 · Power #73

final

Final

UTSA

0-1 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -14

✓ TXST W

Total

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 24–35 UTSA

✓ UTSA (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -14

Total66

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTSA -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close66

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -14

Total66

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like UTSA as a 14-point home favorite against TXST, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 20–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 33 points stayed under 66, as in 1 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.3 against an average line of 12.3; 72.3 points a game (usually 56.1). When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	OU vs KU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & rest	-10.5	52–42	L	O66.25
Loose	VT vs BC 2020 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13	40–14	W	U61.75
Loose	USC vs ORST 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-11	27–45	L	O62.75
Loose	UNC vs NCST 2020 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14.75	48–21	W	O61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
UTSA L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: TXST away, as underdog; UTSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST –	0-0	—	1-0
UTSA U	0-1	0%	0-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXSTlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	0-0 —
UTSAlast 1	0-1 0%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TXST

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#50

Offense

◀ TXST better

#91

#96

Defense

UTSA better ▶

#62

0.0 #70

Turnovers

◀ TXST better

−3.0 #130

69 plays #60

Pace

UTSA faster ▶

71 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Even matchup

	TXST off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #35	17.0 #62	TXST
Yards / play	6.39 #50	4.64 #59	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #36	−0.06 #54	Even
Success rate	41% #80	39% #71	Even

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #115	31.0 #99	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #64	6.89 #114	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.07 #87	+0.15 #95	Even
Success rate	38% #97	39% #77	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.