Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Washington
Weather at kickoff72°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›
1-0 · Power #118
10
final
Final
@
1-0 · Power #13
43
▲ winner
Closing spread
WASH -33
Push
Total
66
▼ Under · 53 pts
Model before kickoff
TLSA 15–44 WASH
✓ WASH (98%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseWASH -33
Total66
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseWASH -33
Total66
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

No recent game is a close match for WASH as a 33-point home favorite against TLSA. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.

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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Tulsa has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams
TLSA
Longer bar = better
WASH
#26
Offense
Even
#18
#33
Defense
◀ TLSA better
#68
−2.0 #118
Turnovers
WASH better ▶
+2.0 #16
69 plays #56
Pace
◀ TLSA faster
61 plays #105
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When TLSA has the ball
Advantage: TLSA offense
TLSA offWASH defEdge
Points / game 42.0 #31 19.0 #68 TLSA
Yards / play 7.49 #23 5.36 #83 TLSA
PPA / play +0.33 #39 +0.12 #89 TLSA
Success rate 61% #10 32% #33 TLSA
When WASH has the ball
Even matchup
WASH offTLSA defEdge
Points / game 56.0 #11 7.0 #16 Even
Yards / play 9.31 #4 3.65 #23 Even
PPA / play +0.50 #16 −0.05 #55 WASH
Success rate 50% #41 33% #39 Even

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
WASH +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
72° · 7 mph
gusts 16 mph · at kickoff
Rest
TLSA9d
WASH7d
TLSA +2 days
Tempo
Average 130 plays
slowavg 135fast
Travel
TLSA 1,560 mi
2 time zones
Quarterback
TLSA backup QB started
Not the usual starter

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week