Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Houston
Closing spread
UTSA -2.5
✓ HOU W
Total
59.5
▼ Under · 31 pts
Model before kickoff
UTSA 27–26 HOU
✗ UTSA (54%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseUTSA -2.5
Total59.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseUTSA -2.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close59.5
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseUTSA -2.5
Total59.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
UTSA as a 2.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: HOU won 17–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 59.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
4 of 944%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 47%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 2.6; 55.8 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  LIB @  TROY2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3 | 21–13 | W | U62.5 |
| Very close |  PITT @  TENN2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-3.5 | 41–34 | W | O56 |
| Very close |  HAW @  WYO2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 7–31 | L | U60 |
| Very close |  BYU @  WSU2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 21–19 | L | U56.5 |
| Very close |  KSU @  TTU2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread |
-1 | 25–24 | P | U60.5 |
| Very close |  CSU @  FRES2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 17–38 | L | U58.25 |
| Very close |  CCU @  GAST2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 41–24 | W | O63.5 |
| Very close |  TCU @ TTU2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 52–31 | W | O60.5 |
| Very close |  PUR @  MINN2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.25 | 31–34 | L | O61 |
| Very close |  WVU @  MD2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 24–30 | L | U57 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
UTSA have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
HOU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
94° · 7 mph
gusts 13 mph · at kickoff
Rest
UTSA1st game
HOU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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MOST @ 
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COLO @ 
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LT @ 
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AKR @ 
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RICE @ 
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USF @ 
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