South Florida @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2023)

Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Western Kentucky

Weather at kickoff88°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

0-0 · Power #95

final

Final

Western Kentucky

0-0 · Power #83

▲ winner

Closing spread

WKU -13.5

✓ WKU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

USF 21–33 WKU

✓ WKU (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -13.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWKU -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -13.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 13.5-point home favorite against USF, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 41–24; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 21.3 against an average line of 12.3; 54.1 points a game (usually 56.3).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB vs BUFF 2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	28–3	W	U54.5
Very close	NW vs MD 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread	-13	43–3	W	U52.5
Close	NCST vs FSU 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-11.5	38–22	W	U61
Close	DUKE vs CLT 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-10.75	53–19	W	O55
Close	LOU vs WKU 2020 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-13	35–21	W	O55
Close	SC vs GAST 2022 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	35–14	W	U54.75
Close	ECU vs ODU 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-13	39–21	W	O49.75
Close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings	-10.5	40–20	W	O45
Close	ISU vs UL 2020 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-13	14–31	L	U56.5
Close	MIAMI vs FSU 2020 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-12	52–10	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF	0-0	—	—	—
WKU	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: USF away, as underdog; WKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF	0-0	—	0-0
WKU	0-0	—	0-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 92 FBS teams

USF

Longer bar = better

WKU

#60

Offense

WKU better ▶

#43

#65

Defense

Even

#58

−3.0 #91

Turnovers

WKU better ▶

+3.0 #6

95 plays #1

Pace

◀ USF faster

73 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #63	24.0 #61	Even
Yards / play	5.68 #50	5.68 #63	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #65	+0.05 #50	WKU
Success rate	40% #60	40% #58	Even

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: WKU offense

	WKU off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #27	41.0 #79	WKU
Yards / play	6.37 #36	6.37 #72	WKU
PPA / play	+0.28 #31	+0.28 #77	WKU
Success rate	34% #76	34% #32	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.