Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Texas
Closing spread
TEX -34.5
✓ RICE W
Total
59
▼ Under · 47 pts
Model before kickoff
RICE 12–40 TEX
✓ TEX (98%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseTEX -34.5
Total59
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseTEX -34.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close59
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseTEX -34.5
Total59
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
TEX as a 34.5-point home favorite against RICE. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Rice have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 92 FBS teams
RICELonger bar = better
TEX#88
Offense
TEX better ▶#45
#66
Defense
TEX better ▶#13
−3.0 #90
Turnovers
TEX better ▶+3.0 #5
51 plays #87
Pace
TEX faster ▶75 plays #17
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When RICE has the ball| RICE off | TEX def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 10.0 #85 | 10.0 #25 | TEX |
| Yards / play | 3.45 #88 | 3.45 #10 | TEX |
| PPA / play | −0.47 #92 | −0.47 #2 | TEX |
| Success rate | 29% #88 | 29% #16 | TEX |
When TEX has the ball| TEX off | RICE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 37.0 #37 | 37.0 #73 | TEX |
| Yards / play | 6.11 #40 | 6.11 #69 | TEX |
| PPA / play | +0.08 #62 | +0.08 #53 | Even |
| Success rate | 46% #40 | 46% #70 | TEX |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
TEX +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
99° · 8 mph
gusts 18 mph · at kickoff
Rest
RICE1st game
TEX1st game
Even
Tempo
Slow 126 plays
slowavg 134fast
Schedules, links & other games
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