Texas @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Alabama

Weather at kickoff84°F7 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Texas

1-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Alabama

1-0 · Power #7

final

Closing spread

ALA -7

✓ TEX W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 23–31 ALA

✗ ALA (69%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -7

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseALA -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -7

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 7-point home favorite against TEX, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 34–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 7.6; 51.7 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MINN vs PUR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-9	10–20	L	U53
Close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Loose	WASH vs MSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	39–28	W	O56.5
Loose	KSU vs MIZ 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & total	-7	40–12	W	U52.5
Loose	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Loose	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75
Loose	OSU vs MICH 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-9	23–45	L	O56
Loose	ARK vs CIN 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	31–24	W	O54.5
Loose	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & rest	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Loose	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX L	0-1	0%	—	—
ALA W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: TEX away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX U	0-1	0%	1-0
ALA –	0-0	—	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 29 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 41% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEXlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%
ALAlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TEX

Longer bar = better

ALA

#63

Offense

ALA better ▶

#20

#17

Defense

◀ TEX better

#44

+3.0 #5

Turnovers

◀ TEX better

+2.0 #20

75 plays #26

Pace

◀ TEX faster

64 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #50	7.0 #24	ALA
Yards / play	6.11 #60	3.46 #16	ALA
PPA / play	+0.08 #86	−0.02 #62	ALA
Success rate	46% #56	39% #72	Even

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	56.0 #13	10.0 #31	Even
Yards / play	6.73 #40	3.45 #14	TEX
PPA / play	+0.54 #12	−0.47 #3	Even
Success rate	59% #14	29% #20	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.