Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Pittsburgh

Weather at kickoff72°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati

1-0 · Power #76

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh

1-0 · Power #77

final

Closing spread

PITT -6.5

✓ CIN W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 24–31 PITT

✗ PITT (67%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePITT -6.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePITT -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePITT -6.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like PITT as a 6.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 27–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 3 similar games. 48 points went over 44.5, as in 2 of 3.

Favorite won

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 6.3 against an average line of 5.9; 51.7 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MINN vs NEB 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & spread	-7.5	13–10	L	U43
Loose	SDSU vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6.25	20–38	L	O46.5
Loose	PUR vs FRES 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total	-4	35–39	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN W	1-0	100%	—	—
PITT W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN O	1-0	100%	1-0
PITT O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 14 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CINlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	1-0 100%
PITTlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CIN

Longer bar = better

PITT

Offense

◀ CIN better

#29

#81

Defense

PITT better ▶

#14

+2.0 #19

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

+1.0 #41

71 plays #43

Pace

PITT faster ▶

77 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	66.0 #4	7.0 #21	Even
Yards / play	9.39 #3	3.50 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.97 #2	−0.45 #4	Even
Success rate	60% #12	22% #12	Even

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #23	13.0 #37	Even
Yards / play	6.38 #53	5.30 #80	PITT
PPA / play	+0.45 #20	+0.31 #116	PITT
Success rate	58% #18	42% #91	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.