California @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2023)

Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at North Texas

Weather at kickoff95°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

California

0-0 · Power #57

▲ winner

Final

North Texas

0-0 · Power #103

final

Closing spread

UNT -9

✓ CAL W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

CAL 23–31 UNT

✗ UNT (72%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNT -9

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNT -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNT -9

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 9-point home favorite against CAL, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: CAL won 58–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 8.8; 45.2 points a game (usually 54.9).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BC vs RUTG 2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9	21–22	L	U47
Very close	JMU vs MRSH 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-9.5	12–26	L	U48.5
Very close	ARMY vs GAST 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	14–31	L	U54
Very close	NU vs DUKE 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10	23–31	L	U56
Very close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-10.5	40–20	W	O45
Very close	STAN vs COLO 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-9.5	32–35	L	O55
Very close	AUB vs MIZ 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	17–14	L	U51
Very close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Very close	TULN vs TEM 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings	-6.75	38–3	W	U57.5
Very close	SYR vs UVA 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread	-9.5	22–20	L	U53.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL	0-0	—	—	—
UNT	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: CAL away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL	0-0	—	0-0
UNT	0-0	—	0-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 92 FBS teams

CAL

Longer bar = better

UNT

#22

Offense

◀ CAL better

#78

#32

Defense

◀ CAL better

#81

+1.0 #39

Turnovers

◀ CAL better

−1.0 #77

95 plays #2

Pace

◀ CAL faster

53 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: CAL offense

	CAL off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	58.0 #8	58.0 #90	CAL
Yards / play	7.15 #20	7.15 #81	CAL
PPA / play	+0.40 #22	+0.40 #81	CAL
Success rate	46% #39	46% #71	CAL

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: CAL defense

	UNT off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #67	21.0 #51	CAL
Yards / play	4.25 #82	4.25 #28	CAL
PPA / play	−0.10 #84	−0.10 #24	CAL
Success rate	33% #80	33% #25	CAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.