Maryland @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F14 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Maryland

5-4 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

Nebraska

5-4 · Power #62

final

Closing spread

MD -2

✓ MD W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 22–20 NEB

✓ MD (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -2

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMD -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 50%, covered 45% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -2

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MD as a 2-point road favorite at NEB, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MD won 13–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 42.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 2.6; 48.9 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BSU @ SDSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–27	L	U44.25
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	WSU @ WASH 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	40–13	W	O45
Very close	WIS @ ILL 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	25–21	W	O41
Very close	AFA @ SDSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	13–3	W	U43.5
Very close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Very close	CSU @ WYO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	17–31	L	O41.5
Very close	SJSU @ SDSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.25	27–43	L	O41
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	30–20	W	O44.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD WLLLL	3-6	33%	1-2	3-4
NEB LWLWL	4-5	44%	2-3	3-2

Venue/role: MD away, as favorite; NEB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD O–OOO	6-2	75%	5-4
NEB O–UOO	4-3	57%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 54% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MDlast 9	5-4 56%	3-6 33%	6-2 75%
NEBlast 9	5-4 56%	4-5 44%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MD 1–4 NEB NEB leads · 5 games since 2016 · NEB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+3.0 →+4.7▲ 1.7#39

NEB+0.1 →0.0▼ 0.1#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

NEB

#50

Offense

◀ MD better

#114

#51

Defense

NEB better ▶

#23

+0.1 #60

Turnovers

◀ MD better

−1.3 #134

68 plays #59

Pace

◀ MD faster

62 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	MD off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #48	18.8 #23	NEB
Yards / play	5.86 #59	4.58 #12	NEB
PPA / play	+0.19 #44	+0.01 #30	Even
Success rate	44% #48	37% #25	NEB

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	NEB off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	19.9 #119	23.8 #53	MD
Yards / play	5.14 #106	5.14 #38	MD
PPA / play	0.00 #119	+0.07 #52	MD
Success rate	38% #113	41% #60	MD

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MD scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	9.3 #13	7.0 #87	16.3 #42	5.4 #84	8.9 #24	14.3 #47
NEB allowed	2.6 #12	6.0 #36	8.6 #17	2.2 #6	8.0 #93	10.2 #39

NEB scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	1.4 #133	6.6 #94	8.0 #126	4.2 #109	7.7 #45	11.9 #88
MD allowed	7.3 #108	4.4 #15	11.8 #54	3.9 #29	8.1 #97	12.0 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.