East Carolina @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Navy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F12 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

East Carolina

2-8 · Power #110

final

Final

Navy

4-5 · Power #108

▲ winner

Closing spread

NAVY -2.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

30.5

▼ Under · 10 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 16–18 NAVY

✓ NAVY (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNAVY -2.5

Total30.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNAVY -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close30.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (81 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNAVY -2.5

Total30.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 2.5-point home favorite against ECU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 10–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 10 points stayed under 30.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 4.2; 45.6 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SHSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	34–37	L	O38
Close	ISU vs OKST 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	34–27	W	O36
Close	IOWA vs MINN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	10–12	L	U30.5
Close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Loose	SJSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3	27–21	W	O40.5
Loose	ARMY vs GASO 2020 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–27	L	O38.5
Loose	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	35–13	W	O38
Loose	IOWA vs PUR 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2.5	20–14	W	U38.5
Loose	BGSU vs BALL 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & spread	-4.5	24–21	L	O39.5
Loose	CSU vs UNM 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.25	17–0	W	U36

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU LLWWW	5-5	50%	3-2	4-4
NAVY LWPLW	3-5-1	38%	1-3-1	1-4

Venue/role: ECU away, as underdog; NAVY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU UUOUU	3-7	30%	2-8
NAVY –UUOU	3-4	43%	4-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECU	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
NAVYlast 9	4-5 44%	3-5-1 38%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−10.0 →−7.6▲ 2.4#102

NAVY−15.5 →−8.2▲ 7.3#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ECU

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#135

Offense

NAVY better ▶

#117

#37

Defense

◀ ECU better

#54

+0.1 #59

Turnovers

NAVY better ▶

+1.3 #3

66 plays #77

Pace

◀ ECU faster

61 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: NAVY defense

	ECU off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	18.1 #129	21.4 #43	NAVY
Yards / play	4.15 #136	5.67 #77	NAVY
PPA / play	−0.10 #137	+0.04 #40	NAVY
Success rate	33% #136	41% #56	NAVY

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	NAVY off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #120	23.0 #49	ECU
Yards / play	5.01 #116	5.20 #42	ECU
PPA / play	+0.04 #109	+0.07 #51	ECU
Success rate	38% #121	34% #6	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	5.7 #76	5.9 #106	11.6 #94	1.7 #132	4.8 #111	6.5 #130
NAVY allowed	4.9 #51	6.8 #55	11.7 #50	2.7 #9	7.1 #84	9.8 #28

NAVY scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	4.7 #92	3.2 #133	7.9 #128	3.9 #114	7.9 #40	11.8 #86
ECU allowed	5.1 #56	7.3 #69	12.4 #56	4.4 #40	6.2 #61	10.6 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.