Navy @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Navy

5-5 · Power #108

final

Final

SMU

9-2 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -19.5

✓ SMU W

Total

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 12–32 SMU

✓ SMU (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -19.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSMU -19.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–21.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 56% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -19.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 19.5-point home favorite against NAVY, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 59–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 46, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.2 against an average line of 19.3; 53.2 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-19.5	49–23	W	O45.5
Very close	CIN vs NAVY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	20–10	L	U43.5
Very close	LOU vs UVA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-20	31–24	L	O49.5
Very close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Very close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Very close	ND vs NAVY 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-21	34–6	W	U47.5
Close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	BYU vs SDSU 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	28–14	L	U47.5
Close	ND vs PITT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-21	58–7	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY WPLWW	4-5-1	44%	2-1	2-1-1
SMU WWLWL	6-5	55%	4-1	6-3

Venue/role: NAVY away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY UUOUU	3-5	38%	5-5
SMU OOOUO	5-5	50%	9-2

Went over in Q2. Of 130 earlier overs in games with totals 42–50, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	3-5 38%
SMU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY−15.5 →−7.8▲ 7.7#104

SMU+10.7 →+10.6▼ 0.1#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

NAVY

Longer bar = better

SMU

#121

Offense

SMU better ▶

#25

#38

Defense

SMU better ▶

#12

+1.4 #3

Turnovers

◀ NAVY better

+0.4 #36

61 plays #123

Pace

SMU faster ▶

73 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	NAVY off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #123	18.0 #15	SMU
Yards / play	4.96 #118	4.58 #8	SMU
PPA / play	+0.02 #115	−0.03 #11	SMU
Success rate	37% #126	35% #12	SMU

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	40.3 #6	19.3 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.47 #27	5.43 #63	SMU
PPA / play	+0.23 #26	0.00 #21	Even
Success rate	45% #42	40% #44	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	4.9 #90	2.9 #133	7.8 #128	3.5 #116	7.4 #53	10.9 #101
SMU allowed	3.7 #27	4.6 #16	8.4 #14	3.7 #19	5.9 #53	9.6 #30

SMU scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	12.6 #2	9.9 #34	22.5 #6	9.0 #11	8.7 #20	17.7 #11
NAVY allowed	4.4 #40	6.1 #36	10.5 #31	2.4 #6	6.4 #69	8.8 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.