UAB @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at North Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

UAB

4-7 · Power #102

final

Final

North Texas

4-7 · Power #103

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNT -2

✓ UNT W

Total

▲ Over · 87 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 34–37 UNT

✓ UNT (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNT -2

Total72

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNT -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close72

Line context

Home favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 54%, covered 47% (76 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNT -2

Total72

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 2-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 45–42; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 87 points went over 72, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 2.7; 75 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KENT vs NIU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	52–47	W	O72
Very close	ARST vs TROY 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	10–38	L	U69.5
Very close	CMU vs KENT 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	54–30	W	O76.5
Very close	ARIZ vs ASU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4	38–35	L	O66.5
Close	UNT vs USM 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	31–41	L	U74
Close	MTSU vs UNT 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	35–52	L	O71.5
Close	TXST vs GASO 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-0.25	45–24	W	O68.75
Close	USU vs HAW 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	51–31	W	O66
Close	UTSA vs UNT 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	49–17	W	U67
Close	TROY vs GAST 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	34–36	L	O68.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB LLWLW	6-5	55%	2-3	3-3
UNT WWPLW	6-4-1	60%	2-2-1	2-3

Venue/role: UAB away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB UOOUU	6-5	55%	4-7
UNT UOUUU	4-5	44%	4-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAB	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
UNT	4-6 40%	6-3-1 67%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB+0.5 →−7.4▼ 7.9#102

UNT−15.5 →−7.4▲ 8.1#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

UAB

Longer bar = better

UNT

#39

Offense

Even

#35

#123

Defense

Even

#129

−0.1 #78

Turnovers

◀ UAB better

−0.4 #106

72 plays #17

Pace

Even

74 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: UAB offense

	UAB off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #59	36.6 #133	UAB
Yards / play	6.15 #46	6.39 #123	UAB
PPA / play	+0.20 #37	+0.25 #128	UAB
Success rate	48% #13	48% #133	UAB

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #27	36.2 #132	UNT
Yards / play	6.55 #20	6.14 #110	UNT
PPA / play	+0.18 #47	+0.21 #118	UNT
Success rate	44% #46	48% #130	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	5.6 #75	11.6 #15	17.3 #31	4.7 #99	6.8 #63	11.5 #86
UNT allowed	7.9 #117	12.5 #131	20.5 #132	6.7 #95	9.5 #118	16.2 #118

UNT scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	8.1 #24	8.9 #53	17.0 #34	7.4 #46	9.2 #17	16.5 #21
UAB allowed	7.9 #117	9.5 #105	17.4 #117	8.7 #124	10.1 #127	18.8 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.