SMU @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sat, Dec 2, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Tulane

Weather at kickoff72°F10 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

SMU

10-2 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Tulane

11-1 · Power #55

final

Closing spread

TULN -2.5

✓ SMU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 25–25 TULN

✗ TULN (52%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTULN -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 51% (99 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 2.5-point home favorite against SMU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 26–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 2.3; 49.4 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA vs LOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-1	31–38	L	O46.5
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Close	VT vs ND 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-1	29–32	L	O47
Close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-4	24–14	W	U47
Close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Close	UTAH vs ASU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	35–21	W	O51.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU WLWLW	7-5	58%	2-4	0-2
TULN LLLWW	5-7	42%	2-5	5-6

Venue/role: SMU away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU OOUOO	6-5	55%	10-2
TULN OUUUU	1-10	9%	11-1

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 55% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
TULN	10-0 100%	4-6 40%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+10.7 →+11.6▲ 0.9#20

TULN+6.3 →+3.2▼ 3.1#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

SMU

Longer bar = better

TULN

#20

Offense

◀ SMU better

#57

#10

Defense

◀ SMU better

#28

+0.4 #32

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #29

72 plays #18

Pace

◀ SMU faster

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	41.8 #5	18.3 #18	Even
Yards / play	6.56 #20	5.14 #30	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #18	+0.02 #21	Even
Success rate	45% #36	40% #42	Even

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	TULN off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #64	17.7 #13	SMU
Yards / play	5.98 #51	4.50 #8	SMU
PPA / play	+0.14 #63	−0.04 #11	SMU
Success rate	43% #51	35% #9	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	13.9 #1	11.1 #21	25.0 #3	8.8 #14	8.0 #35	16.8 #20
TULN allowed	2.8 #11	5.3 #23	8.2 #10	5.2 #51	5.0 #28	10.2 #30

TULN scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	8.3 #21	9.0 #51	17.3 #32	6.0 #72	4.6 #117	10.6 #103
SMU allowed	4.0 #27	4.8 #15	8.8 #17	3.4 #13	5.4 #38	8.8 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.