App State @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sat, Dec 2, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Troy

Weather at kickoff68°F9 mphgusts 25Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

App State

8-4 · Power #61

final

Final

Troy

10-2 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

TROY -5.5

✓ TROY W

Total

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 22–28 TROY

✓ TROY (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -5.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTROY -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 51% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -5.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 5.5-point home favorite against APP, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 49–23; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 52, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 5.4; 54.8 points a game (usually 53.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SDSU vs USU 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	13–46	L	O49.5
Very close	PITT vs DUKE 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	28–26	L	O49
Very close	BAY vs BYU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	38–24	W	O52.5
Very close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	16–28	L	U54.5
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	TLSA vs TULN 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5	30–24	W	U56
Very close	TROY vs CCU 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	45–26	W	O49
Very close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	28–13	W	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP LWWWW	6-5-1	55%	3-2-1	3-0-1
TROY WWWLW	7-5	58%	2-4	6-4

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; TROY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP OUUUO	6-6	50%	8-4
TROY UUOOO	5-6	45%	10-2

Went over in Q4. Of 187 earlier overs in games with totals 48–56, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%
TROY	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−1.3 →+1.1▲ 2.4#59

TROY0.0 →+6.6▲ 6.6#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

APP

Longer bar = better

TROY

#29

Offense

◀ APP better

#62

#74

Defense

TROY better ▶

#12

+0.3 #36

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #47

71 plays #25

Pace

◀ APP faster

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Even matchup

	APP off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #17	16.7 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.41 #31	4.74 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #31	−0.06 #7	TROY
Success rate	45% #38	37% #20	Even

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #55	26.7 #73	Even
Yards / play	6.20 #42	5.69 #76	TROY
PPA / play	+0.14 #61	+0.11 #73	Even
Success rate	40% #90	42% #74	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

APP scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	5.3 #85	11.1 #21	16.4 #40	8.9 #12	9.3 #16	18.3 #8
TROY allowed	3.4 #18	5.3 #23	8.8 #15	3.4 #13	4.5 #19	7.9 #12

TROY scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	4.0 #108	10.4 #27	14.4 #68	5.4 #83	9.8 #12	15.3 #37
APP allowed	4.7 #46	8.6 #87	13.3 #71	5.5 #60	6.6 #70	12.1 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.