Oklahoma State vs Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sat, Dec 2, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Oklahoma State

9-3 · Power #43

final

Final

Texas

11-1 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -14.5

✓ TEX W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 20–35 TEX

✓ TEX (85%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -14.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEX -14.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -14.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 14.5-point neutral-site favorite against OKST, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 49–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 57.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 14.3; 60.4 points a game (usually 55.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs PUR 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-15.75	43–22	W	O54
Close	LSU vs PUR 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-15	63–7	W	O54.25
Close	UNC vs GT 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	22–45	L	O65.25
Close	UL vs UTSA 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-14	31–24	L	O54.5
Close	OSU vs NW 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & total	-16.5	22–10	L	U56.5
Close	UGA vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	65–7	W	O61.75
Close	UGA vs LSU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-17	50–30	W	O52
Loose	UNC vs SC 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar total & spread	-12.5	21–38	L	O57.5
Loose	MSST vs TTU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar total	-10	7–34	L	U58
Loose	UGA vs FLA 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread	-14	43–20	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OKST WWLWL	7-5	58%	—	4-1
TEX WPLWW	6-5-1	55%	0-1	5-5-1

Venue/role: OKST neutral, as underdog; TEX neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST OUUOO	6-5	55%	9-3
TEX UOUUO	3-8	27%	11-1

Went over in Q4. Of 142 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKST	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-3 67%
TEX	9-1 90%	5-4-1 56%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

OKST 11–27 TEX TEX leads · 38 games since 1916 · TEX has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST−1.5 →+4.2▲ 5.7#40

TEX+8.6 →+17.8▲ 9.2#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

OKST

Longer bar = better

TEX

#60

Offense

TEX better ▶

#35

#77

Defense

TEX better ▶

#18

+0.3 #46

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+0.5 #28

74 plays #12

Pace

◀ OKST faster

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	OKST off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #49	17.3 #12	TEX
Yards / play	5.88 #58	5.04 #27	TEX
PPA / play	+0.12 #73	+0.01 #18	TEX
Success rate	43% #59	36% #14	TEX

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	35.1 #22	27.3 #80	TEX
Yards / play	6.55 #22	6.28 #119	TEX
PPA / play	+0.18 #48	+0.11 #74	TEX
Success rate	44% #48	39% #35	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	6.2 #63	6.3 #96	12.4 #88	5.9 #74	10.8 #4	16.7 #24
TEX allowed	3.0 #13	4.4 #11	7.4 #8	4.2 #30	5.7 #42	9.8 #27

TEX scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	7.7 #32	10.2 #33	17.8 #26	7.8 #32	9.3 #17	17.0 #21
OKST allowed	6.7 #96	9.9 #111	16.6 #109	4.8 #43	5.4 #38	10.2 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.