New Mexico State @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Fri, Dec 1, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Liberty

Weather at kickoff49°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

10-3 · Power #84

final

Final

Liberty

12-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -10

✓ LIB W

Total

▲ Over · 84 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 23–34 LIB

✓ LIB (78%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -10

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLIB -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58

Line context

Home favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 82%, covered 46% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -10

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 10-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 49–35; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 84 points went over 58, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.1 against an average line of 10.9; 55.7 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TENN vs SC 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	45–20	W	O56.5
Very close	JMU vs APP 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.75	23–26	L	U56.25
Very close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25
Very close	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5
Very close	USA vs UL 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-11.5	20–33	L	U55
Very close	MIA vs DUKE 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	21–45	L	O59
Very close	TOL vs CMU 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	24–23	L	U54.5
Very close	NEV vs SJSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-11.5	27–24	L	U55.5
Very close	LIB vs ODU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-13.5	38–10	W	U58.5
Very close	WKU vs FAU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.25	52–17	W	O64

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU WWWWW	11-2	85%	6-1	6-1
LIB WWWLL	7-5	58%	3-4	7-5

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UUOUU	3-9	25%	10-3
LIB OOUOO	6-4	60%	12-0

Went over in Q3. Of 125 earlier overs in games with totals 54–62, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	9-1 90%	10-0 100%	1-8 11%
LIB	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NMSU 2–7 LIB LIB leads · 9 games since 2018 · LIB has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	New Mexico State 17 @ Liberty 33	LIB -9	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−6.9 →−2.4▲ 4.5#73

LIB+3.0 →+7.2▲ 4.2#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

NMSU

Longer bar = better

LIB

#29

Offense

LIB better ▶

#59

Defense

LIB better ▶

#41

−0.2 #87

Turnovers

LIB better ▶

+0.7 #18

61 plays #126

Pace

LIB faster ▶

71 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NMSU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #61	21.7 #35	LIB
Yards / play	6.91 #10	5.32 #51	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #21	+0.02 #23	Even
Success rate	47% #22	41% #56	NMSU

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	40.1 #6	19.7 #21	Even
Yards / play	7.03 #7	5.66 #72	LIB
PPA / play	+0.34 #5	+0.10 #69	LIB
Success rate	53% #3	43% #75	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	5.5 #77	9.3 #48	14.8 #63	5.2 #90	8.2 #36	13.4 #60
LIB allowed	5.1 #57	5.9 #33	11.0 #38	4.5 #39	6.2 #61	10.7 #40

LIB scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	11.3 #4	12.6 #8	23.9 #5	8.9 #11	7.3 #52	16.2 #30
NMSU allowed	3.2 #15	7.2 #58	10.4 #27	3.4 #13	5.9 #55	9.3 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.