Boise State @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sat, Dec 2, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at UNLV

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Boise State

7-5 · Power #48

▲ winner

Final

UNLV

9-3 · Power #68

final

Closing spread

BOIS -2

✓ BOIS W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 31–30 UNLV

✓ BOIS (54%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -2

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBOIS -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 47%, covered 44% (59 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -2

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 2-point road favorite at UNLV, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 44–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 61.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.2 against an average line of 2.9; 61.2 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Very close	OKST @ UCF 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	3–45	L	U64
Very close	BALL @ CMU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	45–20	W	O63
Very close	MIA @ FSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	28–31	L	U61.25
Very close	BOIS @ USU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	45–10	W	U63.5
Very close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Very close	SMU @ TLSA 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	24–28	L	U64.5
Very close	NEV @ CSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	52–10	W	O57.75
Very close	TCU @ TTU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	52–31	W	O60.5
Very close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS WLWWW	6-4-2	60%	1-4-1	5-2-1
UNLV WWWWL	10-2	83%	4-2	5-0

Venue/role: BOIS away, as favorite; UNLV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS UOUUO	6-4	60%	7-5
UNLV UOUOO	7-5	58%	9-3

Went over in Q4. Of 78 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	7-3 70%	5-3-2 63%	6-3 67%
UNLV	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS−9.9 →+2.7▲ 12.6#50

UNLV−2.6 →+0.3▲ 2.9#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

BOIS

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#30

Offense

Even

#34

#75

Defense

Even

#75

−0.2 #91

Turnovers

UNLV better ▶

+0.7 #21

67 plays #61

Pace

Even

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #37	25.6 #65	BOIS
Yards / play	6.50 #25	5.91 #94	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.20 #41	+0.14 #85	BOIS
Success rate	48% #18	41% #54	BOIS

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #19	25.3 #62	UNLV
Yards / play	6.24 #40	6.02 #102	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.24 #20	+0.12 #79	UNLV
Success rate	43% #55	41% #57	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	4.9 #90	12.8 #7	17.8 #26	6.1 #67	8.2 #34	14.3 #45
UNLV allowed	5.2 #59	7.3 #59	12.5 #57	6.6 #95	6.5 #66	13.1 #79

UNLV scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	9.0 #14	9.3 #46	18.3 #19	8.3 #23	8.9 #20	17.2 #16
BOIS allowed	4.6 #42	8.6 #87	13.2 #72	4.7 #41	7.4 #93	12.1 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.