Miami (OH) vs Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sat, Dec 2, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

10-2 · Power #78

▲ winner

Final

Toledo

11-1 · Power #58

final

Closing spread

TOL -6

✓ M-OH W

Total

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 21–27 TOL

✗ TOL (67%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -6

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTOL -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -6

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 6-point neutral-site favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 23–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 43, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 5.4; 38.2 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	16–21	L	U45
Close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-7	13–7	L	U40.5
Loose	GASO vs LT 2020 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & situation	-7.25	38–3	W	U48
Loose	WISC vs OKST 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & total	-5	24–17	W	U45
Loose	AFA vs ARMY 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	14–21	L	U37.5
Loose	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar total & season form	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25
Loose	WVU vs ARMY 2020 · Postseason · loose · similar total & season form	-9.75	24–21	L	O40.5
Loose	UK vs IOWA 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar total & season form	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Loose	OHIO vs WYO 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar total	-3	30–27	P	O43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
M-OH LWWWL	9-3	75%	—	2-2
TOL WWWLW	6-6	50%	—	5-6

Venue/role: M-OH neutral, as underdog; TOL neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH UOUUU	5-5	50%	10-2
TOL UUOOU	5-5	50%	11-1

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 39–47 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	4-5 44%
TOL	10-0 100%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

M-OH 0–1 TOL TOL leads · 1 game since 2023 · TOL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Toledo 21 @ Miami (OH) 17	TOL -2	TOL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−11.1 →−3.2▲ 7.9#78

TOL+0.7 →+2.3▲ 1.6#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

M-OH

Longer bar = better

TOL

#78

Offense

TOL better ▶

#21

#24

Defense

Even

#24

0.0 #66

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #74

57 plays #133

Pace

TOL faster ▶

65 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	M-OH off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #68	20.4 #28	TOL
Yards / play	5.83 #60	4.92 #21	TOL
PPA / play	+0.13 #68	0.00 #15	TOL
Success rate	38% #114	39% #32	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Even matchup

	TOL off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #20	16.3 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.60 #16	4.87 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #25	+0.03 #27	Even
Success rate	47% #23	40% #44	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	7.5 #35	7.3 #78	14.8 #65	7.3 #52	4.7 #116	11.9 #83
TOL allowed	4.1 #29	5.6 #28	9.7 #23	5.2 #50	5.6 #40	10.8 #39

TOL scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	9.0 #14	9.1 #51	18.1 #22	8.8 #16	8.4 #28	17.2 #16
M-OH allowed	4.6 #41	4.3 #10	8.9 #19	3.5 #16	3.9 #9	7.4 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.