Toledo vs Wyoming: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 30, 2023, 4:30 PM ESTBarstool Sports Arizona Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff70°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Toledo

11-2 · Power #58

final

Final

Wyoming

8-4 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

WYO -5.5

✓ TOL W

Total

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 22–25 WYO

✓ WYO (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWYO -5.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWYO -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWYO -5.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WYO as a 5.5-point neutral-site favorite against TOL, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WYO won 16–15; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 44, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 3.6; 41.5 points a game (usually 53.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SDSU vs UTSA 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	38–24	W	O48
Close	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-7	23–25	L	O47
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-2	12–16	L	U45.25
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	14–21	L	U37.5
Close	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25
Close	NW vs AUB 2020 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	35–19	W	O45
Close	UK vs IOWA 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	29–6	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TOL WWLWL	6-7	46%	0-1	1-0
WYO LWLWW	7-4-1	64%	—	3-2-1

Venue/role: TOL neutral, as underdog; WYO neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOOUU	5-6	45%	11-2
WYO UUUOO	4-6	40%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 56% of games with totals 40–48 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%
WYO	6-4 60%	6-3-1 67%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL+0.7 →+1.8▲ 1.1#55

WYO−2.7 →−3.3▼ 0.6#80

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

TOL

Longer bar = better

WYO

#24

Offense

◀ TOL better

#69

#20

Defense

◀ TOL better

#57

−0.2 #91

Turnovers

WYO better ▶

+0.8 #9

65 plays #80

Pace

◀ TOL faster

59 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #26	22.9 #46	Even
Yards / play	6.53 #20	5.19 #36	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #24	+0.08 #55	TOL
Success rate	46% #26	43% #89	TOL

When WYO has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	WYO off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #78	20.6 #23	TOL
Yards / play	5.54 #80	4.94 #17	TOL
PPA / play	+0.14 #61	0.00 #15	TOL
Success rate	43% #57	38% #26	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	8.3 #21	9.0 #50	17.3 #28	8.5 #16	7.8 #40	16.3 #23
WYO allowed	5.7 #73	5.3 #20	10.9 #35	3.6 #15	7.3 #89	10.9 #37

WYO scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	7.1 #41	8.7 #56	15.8 #53	5.4 #82	3.7 #130	9.1 #119
TOL allowed	4.5 #40	5.2 #18	9.7 #23	5.0 #47	5.9 #51	10.9 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.