Georgia vs Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Capital One Orange Bowl, 2023)

Sat, Dec 30, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTCapital One Orange Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff65°F6 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Georgia

12-1 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Florida State

13-0 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

UGA -23.5

✓ UGA W

Total

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 37–17 FSU

✓ UGA (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -23.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UGA LWWLL	4-8-1	33%	1-1	4-8-1
FSU LLLWW	8-5	62%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: UGA neutral, as favorite; FSU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA UOUUU	5-7	42%	12-1
FSU UUOUU	5-6	45%	13-0

Went over in Q3. Of 160 earlier overs in games with totals 43–51, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	5-4 56%
FSU	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+6.4 →+20.9▲ 14.5#4

FSU+6.4 →+17.1▲ 10.7#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

UGA

Longer bar = better

FSU

Offense

◀ UGA better

#40

#20

Defense

Even

−0.1 #79

Turnovers

FSU better ▶

+0.9 #5

68 plays #50

Pace

◀ UGA faster

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Even matchup

	UGA off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	38.4 #9	15.9 #7	Even
Yards / play	7.12 #7	4.68 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #4	−0.02 #12	Even
Success rate	52% #5	34% #7	Even

When FSU has the ball

Even matchup

	FSU off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #13	16.6 #9	Even
Yards / play	6.42 #26	4.82 #13	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #43	+0.04 #28	Even
Success rate	42% #76	38% #31	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	6.8 #44	13.4 #5	20.2 #12	10.5 #4	7.6 #43	18.2 #9
FSU allowed	3.1 #11	6.8 #49	9.9 #26	3.5 #13	2.5 #1	6.0 #3

FSU scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	5.9 #64	11.0 #20	16.9 #31	9.5 #7	10.0 #9	19.5 #4
UGA allowed	5.0 #55	4.5 #10	9.5 #19	1.5 #2	5.7 #43	7.2 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.