North Carolina vs West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Duke's Mayo Bowl, 2023)

Wed, Dec 27, 2023, 5:30 PM ESTDuke's Mayo Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff55°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

North Carolina

8-4 · Power #34

final

Final

West Virginia

8-4 · Power #39

▲ winner

Closing spread

WVU -4.5

✓ WVU W

Total

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 30–33 WVU

✓ WVU (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWVU -4.5

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWVU -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close62

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWVU -4.5

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WVU as a 4.5-point neutral-site favorite against UNC, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 30–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 62, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 4.2; 59.1 points a game (usually 53.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DUKE vs UCF 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & situation	-3.25	30–13	W	U62.75
Very close	SMU vs BYU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	23–24	L	U65
Very close	USA vs WKU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.75	23–44	L	O58
Very close	WMU vs NEV 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	52–24	W	O57
Close	UL vs MRSH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-4	36–21	W	O55.5
Close	OKST vs MIAMI 2020 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-1	37–34	W	O63
Close	TENN vs PUR 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	45–48	L	O66.5
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	MSU vs PITT 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	31–21	W	U55
Close	NEV vs SJSU 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	20–30	L	U61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UNC LWLLL	6-6	50%	1-0	0-1
WVU WWLWL	7-5	58%	—	4-3

Venue/role: UNC neutral, as underdog; WVU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC OUOUO	6-4-1	60%	8-4
WVU OUOOO	7-4	64%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 43% of games with totals 58–66 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-3-1 63%
WVU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC+0.1 →+7.7▲ 7.6#27

WVU−6.5 →+4.0▲ 10.5#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

UNC

Longer bar = better

WVU

#19

Offense

◀ UNC better

#38

#83

Defense

Even

#86

+0.6 #23

Turnovers

◀ UNC better

0.0 #72

74 plays #7

Pace

◀ UNC faster

70 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UNC offense

	UNC off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #16	27.5 #80	UNC
Yards / play	6.79 #11	5.85 #90	UNC
PPA / play	+0.23 #22	+0.16 #97	UNC
Success rate	46% #28	43% #77	UNC

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: WVU offense

	WVU off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #40	27.1 #75	WVU
Yards / play	6.24 #34	5.52 #65	WVU
PPA / play	+0.19 #41	+0.16 #95	WVU
Success rate	45% #38	44% #95	WVU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	6.9 #45	11.4 #14	18.3 #18	10.4 #5	5.8 #91	16.3 #28
WVU allowed	5.4 #68	6.8 #50	12.3 #56	5.3 #54	10.0 #130	15.3 #107

WVU scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	6.3 #54	11.7 #13	18.0 #20	6.3 #66	7.3 #51	13.6 #55
UNC allowed	3.4 #16	10.5 #121	13.9 #79	5.1 #49	6.8 #72	11.8 #59

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.